December 18th - 20th Weekend Predictions

Final Predictions:

1. Avatar - $47 million (NEW)
2. The Princess and the Frog - $15 million (-38%)
3. The Blind Side - $10.9 million (-28%)
4. Did You Hear About the Morgans? - $6.8 million
5. A Christmas Carol - $6 million (-12%)
6. Invictus - $5.2 million (-40%)
7. New Moon - $4.6 million (-42%)
8. Brothers - $3 million (-40%)
9. Old Dogs - $2.8 million (-37%)
10. 2012 - $2.7 million (-38%)

Avatar is a very interesting new release that I still haven't penned down myself. It is James Cameron's (Titanic) latest $500 million epic staring Sam Worthington (Terminator: Salvation). Avatar has some massive expectations going for it, but I sadly don't think it's going to reach them. It's still got a lot to fight against. First, it has no previous fanbase since it's an original work. Some will argue that there is a James Cameron fanbase, but I doubt that group holds more than 500,000 members and more just fans of high quality films that would see this film anyway. My second factor is its perception. Set at least hundred years in the future, the movie's mainly about 10-feet tall blue aliens with tails that our main character falls in love with, which isn't too relateable. There are a lot of other detractors in my book, another small one being that sci-fi movies don't have a huge history of success during the winter (The Day the Earth Stood Still, Starship Troopers, Treasure Planet). 

Don't get me wrong, I fully expect Avatar to be an amazing movie (and I really would like to see it do well so we can have more film "risks"), but I can't jump on the bandwagon this time. Hopefully I'm proven wrong!


On another note, Did You Hear About the Morgans will also debut on Friday. Its TV spots continually forget to show the actual premise of the entire movie (which is a married couple is forced to go into the witness protection program) and are entirely selling it on the banter of Hugh Grant and Sarah Jessica Parker. Only problem is they're not doing it that well. I'd be surprised to see it open over $10 million, which is sad, because based off the trailer that was released a couple months ago, I thought it could do great business.

Thanksgiving Predictions

Haven't had a chance to update in awhile, so I'll try to summarize the past two weeks. 2012 did rock solid business in its opening on November 13th with a $65.2 million opening weekend. Now I did overestimate its potential, it should still have a great total of around $160-180 million.

The BIGGEST story by far was the opening of Twilight: New Moon last weekend. It shot past The Dark Knight's opening day with a massive $72.7 million first day, and got the third best opening weekend of all time with $142.8 million, DOUBLING Twilight's first weekend of last year. At this point, I don't see any less than $315 million for New Moon, which would most likely make it the biggest movie of the winter season.


The Blind Side also did amazing business last weekend, with the biggest opening ever for a sports drama! Sandra Bullock proved she is one of the most appealing actresses working this year, with this and The Proposal, even making the much-delayed All About Steve avoid total bomb status. The Blind Side could potentially gross over $150 million over the holiday seasons, easily becoming one of the biggest surprises this year.

With Thanksgiving tomorrow, the box office looks to be very bright. My final weekend predictions:


Rank Movie - Prediction -(Percent Change from last wknd) - 5-Day Gross

1. Twilight: New Moon - $45 million (-68.5%) $67.8 million
2. The Blind Side - $29.5 million (-13.5%) $42.4 million
3. Old Dogs - $22 million (NEW) $32.1 million
4. 2012 - $18 million (-31.8%) $26.1 million
5. A Christmas Carol - $14 million (+14.1%) $20 million
6. Ninja Assassin - $11.3 million (NEW) $19.1 million
7. Planet 51 - $9.6 million (-21.9%) $13.2 million
8. The Fantastic Mr. Fox - $9.1 million (+4371.5%) $12.4 million
9. Precious - $7.2 million (-33.8%) $9.4 million
10. The Men Who Stare At Goats - $1 million (-64.7%) $1.5 million 

Even with two new releases, Twilight: New Moon looks to stay #1 over the Thanksgiving holiday, even though it will fall nearly 70%.  

Old Dogs is marketing as the new Wild Hogs, but I can't see it having the same success. Wild Hogs had a much more appealing trailer and cast (arguably). All of the trailers and TV spots are fast and frenetic, with jokes mostly relating to a very friendly gorilla and some depth perception drug, all which take focus off what the movie is really even about. Still, this type of comedy will have an audience, which should give it over a $30 million 5-Day gross. 

The Blind Side in my opinion will be the story of the weekend. Not only was it huge last weekend, it's barely going to fall at all. 

November 13th - 15th Weekend Predictions

Final Predictions:

1. 2012 - $ 77.0 million (NEW)
2. A Christmas Carol - $ 19.8 million (-34.1%)
3. Michael Jackson's This Is It - $ 7.0 million (-46.8%)
4. The Men Who Stare at Goats - $ 6.1 million (-52.0%)
5. The Fourth Kind - $ 6.0 million (-50.9%)
6. Paranormal Activity - $ 4.6 million (-44.4%)
7. Precious- $ 4.3 million (+129.7%)
8. Couples Retreat - $ 3.8 million (-38.0%)
9. Law Abiding Citizen - $ 3.4 million (-43.4%)
10. The Box - $ 3.4 million (-55.1%)
11. Pirate Radio - $ 1.8 million (NEW)

2012 is headed for some big numbers this weekend. We actually are going to have a very big next three weekends, starting with 2012, New Moon next weekend, and then Thanksgiving weekend following. 2012's marketing campaign has been vast and has definitely made the movie look like the most epic of all disaster movies and an eerie possibility for the future. I don't see any less than a $70 million opening weekend.

Not as confident on the holdovers. Veteran's Day has thrown off some of the regular daily patterns which makes weekend predictions a little simpler. Still, The Box should have one of the biggest dropoffs.

Pirate Radio is bound to sink in my opinion. No buzz or interest. The similarly-themed Taking Woodstock had at least some Oscar-potential at the time and far less competion. I don't see Pirate Radio making much more than $2 million this weekend.

Last weekend's HUGE surprise, Precious, expands into 126 theaters this weekend and will make a minimum of $4 million. It had one of the highest per theater averages ever last weekend in only 16 theaters, nearly breaking into the top ten!

Best and Worst Poster Marketing of Upcoming Movies

Movie posters are an essential piece to every single movie ever released. When done right, a movie poster can provide a great indication of quality to a consumer and get them interested in a movie. On the other side, a bad movie poster doesn't create any attention and the entire point of the poster is lost. Here's what I view as the best posters for movies yet to be released, and just for fun, the worst!

THE BEST

2012 - A truly fantastic yet frightening image of an entire city going underwater. Paints the story perfectly of what could happen if the Mayans were right.

Alice in Wonderland - It won't be released until next spring, but Disney is already doing a great job of showing off their new, colorful zaniness of their live-action Tim Burton-directed Alice in Wonderland with a great poster of Johnny Depp as the Mad Hatter.

New Moon - A great teaser that very simply shows the story focus of the Twilight sequel.

THE WORST

When in Rome - This is about the scariest picture I've ever seen of Kristen Bell. No one would have any idea what this movie is about (or even care) other than a girl wishing to be so giant that she could eat a small taxi-car thing full of six men.

Extraordinary Measures - Words can't explain this awful, boring poster. That line down the back of Brendan Fraser over Harrison Ford's jacket breaks every design rule. Plus to top it off - is it a horror film (the dark red horror movie title font) or an inspirational drama (the tagline of "Don't hope for a miracle. Make One.")??

Avatar - Yes, this is only a teaser poster, but with less than two months away til the actual release date, this is all we have of the large $200+ million budgeted James Cameron film. Just a slightly creepy blue face. At least the trailer is good.

Weekend Preview: November 6th - 8th

November starts off with a bang this weekend, with four new releases looking to stir up some winter business. Jim Carrey's big new animated adventure, A Christmas Carol, debuts tomorrow. Carrey is no stranger to big holiday films, from How the Grinch Stole Christmas ($260 million) to Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events ($118 million). A Christmas Carol is the third motion-caputure style of animation from Zemeckis, following The Polar Express ($180 million) and Beowulf ($82 million). A Christmas Carol should easily catch the #1 postion this weekend. Its had its advertisements everywhere, my only concern is how appealing they are to children. The colors are very dark and it's not Santa-related like The Polar Express. More importantly, the trailers aren't terribly funny. Still, Jim Carrey will still find a large audience which will give A Christmas Carol around a $30 million gross this weekend and a long run ahead throughout Christmas.

Our other 3 releases are fighting to top This Is It's second weekend. The Men Who Stare At Goats has the best chance in my opinion. It has a very funny trailer with a very unique premise. The posters stand out, especially the obvious title. It doesn't have as good of polls as Burn After Reading, but it still should pull around a $16 million opening. 

The Box and The Fourth Kind are looking for horror fans craving more after Halloween. The Fourth Kind has a particularly disturbingly real trailer, a la Paranormal Activity. That will also hurt it as much as it helps it, considering Paranormal Activity has now stolen its thunder and audience. It should pull around an $11 million opening this weekend. The Box headlines Cameron Diaz as its star and centers around a mysterious box that when pressed, gives a couple $1 million, but will also kill someone. If only the trailers focused just on this! Instead, the trailers abandon the "box" halfway through and jump to other random plot points, all the while forgetting to establish Cameron Diaz and James Marsden as real characters. This will make The Box the lowest grossing new release of the four with around $8 million.

My predictions:
1. A Christmas Carol - $29.2 million (NEW)
2. The Men Who Stare At Goals - $16 million (NEW)
3. Michael Jackson's This Is It - $13.5 million (-42%)
4. The Fourth Kind - $11 million (NEW)
5. The Box - $7.8 million (NEW)
6. Paranormal Activity - $7.8 million (-52%)
7. Law Abiding Citizen - $4.5 million (-39%)
8. Couples Retreat - $3.9 million (-40%)
9. Where the Wild Things Are - $2.7 million (-55%)
10. Saw VI - $1.9 million (-62%)


On the holdovers, This Is It should hold relatively well since the initial demand was burned off last week by opening on a Wednesday instead of a Friday. It is also showing very good word of mouth. Paranormal Activity will suffer from good Halloween dailies last weekend as well as two new horror entries. Where the Wild Things Are really can't catch a break, as it will most likely fall over 55% for the third weekend in a row.


Last weekend's accuracy: 87.23% (Ranked # 66 of 465) - Definitely not as high ranked as I wanted to be. I way underestimated Halloween's effect on the family films and used the wrong number for Couples Retreat.

Dismantling a Bomb - Saw VI

Last weekend, Saw VI stumbled out of the gate with a poor $14.1 million opening, a worse start than the very first Saw! Let's take a look at the previous Saw performances:

Movie - Opening Weekend (% Change from Previous Movie) / Total (% Change)
Saw - $18.3 million / $55.2 million
Saw II - $31.7 million (+73%) / $87 million (+58%)
Saw III - $33.6 million (+6%) / $80.2 million (-8%)
Saw IV - $31.8 million (-5%) / $63.3 million (-21%)

Saw V - $30.1 million (-5%) / $55.2 million (-13%)

Saw VI - $14.1 million (-53%) / ~$26 million (-53%)

Quite the dropoff from Saw V. I think this fallout was caused by a combination of various marketing reasons. Competition-wise, the Saw series has had the Halloween time frame all to itself (with the exception of the first, which competed against The Grudge). This year, Saw VI had to content with Paranormal Activity, a movie most general moviegoers picked between the two choices because of Paranormal's big buzz of being "the scariest movie ever." There has also been some big dropoffs of audience reception to the past Saw's. Take a look at the Yahoo average user grades:

Saw - B

Saw II - B+

Saw III - B

Saw IV - B

Saw V - B-

Saw VI's marketing was noticeable a lot weaker as well. The posters weren't as clever with the Saw traps, nor was the tagline and marketing message ("Saw comes full circle" vs. Saw V's "You won't believe how it ends"). 

So overall, the combination of competition, previous movies' shrinking reception, and weaker marketing all led to the massive 53% dropoff from Saw V. Of course, Saw VI will still be profitable with its $11 million budget and one would have to expect some sort of dropoff after 6 films in just 6 years. It is still a big disappointment that few truly expected. 

Note: Saw VI's current user grade on Yahoo is at a B+, which could bode well for the series' future, when next year Saw VII debuts in 3D.

This Is It Wednesday Opening & Halloween Weekend Preview

Michael Jackson's This Is It opened Wednesday with a modest gross of $7.5 million. Expectations were set very high for this movie, which studios reportedly battled over with Sony being the highest bidder of $60 million. That said, This Is It's Wednedsay gross is fairly disappointing, especially as it didn't the Hannah Montana concert movie's first day ($8.7 million) and barely went past the Jonas Brothers concert movie's first day ($5 million). While those two movies both opened on Friday and This Is It on a less budy Wednesday, one has to assume Michael Jackson has a much larger fanbase which would have pushed This Is It to a higher level. I believe the media overload of Michael Jackson in the past months probably is the biggest reason for this.

Still, this is a documentary/concert movie and This Is It will probably still end up being the highest grossing movie in that category (though it has to beat the Hannah Montana concert movie first). While some analysts were expecting over $70 million for its first 5 days, I now predict a five-day gross of a little more than $26 million, with a weekend gross of $17 million. This would barely give it the #1 weekend position. It could rebound more with the weekend, but it has Halloween to hurt it and I believe a good amount of its fanbase has already rushed out to see it.

Halloween falling on a Saturday hasn't happened since 1998, so it should be interesting to see how the holdovers play out (most daily box office figures aren't available prior to 2000). The Halloween-themed movies should get a very nice bump on Saturday (Saw VI, Paranormal Activity, The Stepfather, and Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant). However, Saw VI will still overall implode over the weekend, just like all the other Saw's. The family films won't be hurt too horribly on Saturday as most of their attendance is during the day anyway, but they still should lose 20% of their Saturday (due to trick or treating) and recover slightly on Sunday. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs should have the best drop in the top ten besides Paranormal Activity. Adult-targeted films (Couples Retreat, Law Abiding Citizen) tend to also get a boost on Halloween, but their Saturday boost will probably be equalized by a bigger Sunday drop.

My predictions:
1. Michael Jackson's This Is It - $17 million (NEW)
2. Paranormal Activity - $16 million (-24%)
3. Law Abiding Citizen - $7.6 million (-39%)
4. Where the Wild Things Are - $7.5 million (-47%)
5. Couples Retreat - $5 million (-53%)
6. Saw VI - $4.5 million (-68%)
7. Astro Boy - $3.7 million (-45%)
8. The Stepfather - $3.3 million (-47%)
9. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $3.2 million (-39%)
10. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $3 million (-52%)

October 23rd - 25th Weekend Wrapup

This past weekend, Saw was no longer the king of horror during the Halloween time frame. Paranormal Activity was the #1 movie in America with $21.1 million. Paranormal's gross was expected, but it taking the top spot was definitely not. Saw has been a very consistent opener since its first sequel, each of them banking over $30 million in their first weekends. This time, Saw VI opened with only $14.1 million, meaning Saw VI made less in its first three days than the previous three Saw's did on their first day. 

What caused the massive drop off? Audience reception from the last two movies have been pretty subpar, so when presented with a promising alternative (Paranormal Activity), they took it, leaving only the hardcore fans of Saw in the theater. Despite Saw VI already making back its budget (only $11 million) this weekend, its gross was far below even the lowest of predictions. The next Saw will be in 3D, so we will see next year if that saves the franchise from falling even more. 

Our other three new releases did little to improve this weekend. Astro Boy grossed a poor $6.7 million by failing to interest families, as a sci-fi animation based on TV show no kid this generation has ever heard of is a very hard sell. It's not going to even get close to half of its $65 million budget. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant proved even more the importance of a target audience as I predicted. A movie that's based on a current "fad" does not guarantee success, it all comes down to the premise & story, characters, and how well they are marketed. The Vampire's Assistant was too cheesy in its ads to be dark, and tried to sell too many genres that don't mix well (Movie Marketing Rule #1), so this weekend it grossed a paltry $6.3 million. 

Amelia didn't fly very far, grossing $3.9 million in 820 theaters. It had a decent per theater average of $4,761 (Saw VI had a $4,650 average for comparison), but there's little chance it will gain much traction, which will cut its Oscar potential down a lot. These kind of dramas live or die by their reviews, and Amelia didn't cut it.

Where the Wild Things Are had the biggest drop in top 10, falling 57% to $14 million. Reception among families is poor, as apparently the film is a bit boring for kids, but its run should improve a little in the future as its older audience seem to be responding well to it. The Stepfather didn't implode as I thought it would (because of the competition). Sneak-ins in to Paranormal Activity and Saw VI possibly helped it avoid a 50% drop. 

Rank Movie - Weekend Gross (Change) My Projected Total

1. Paranormal Activity - $21.1 million (+7.6%) $120 million
2. Saw VI - $14.1 million (NEW) $27 million

3. Where the Wild Things Are - $14.0 million (-57%) $85 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $12.4 million (-41%) $59 million
5. Couples Retreat - $10.6 million (-38%) $105 million
6. Astro Boy - $6.7 million (NEW) $20 million
7. Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $6.3 million (NEW) $19 million

8. The Stepfather - $6.2 million (-46%) $34 million
9. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $5.3 million (-35%) $129 million

10. Zombieland - $4.2 million (-45%) $80 million
11. Amelia - $3.9 million (NEW) $16 million

My accuracy this weekend: 78.22% (ranked # 31)
Saw definitely killed my score this weekend by nearly doubling its actual gross, along with The Stepfather doing way better than I expected. A decent rank, nonetheless.

Weekend Preview: October 23rd - 25th

This weekend, four new movies enter the marketplace, each with their own problems. The Saw series looks to dominate the box office with its latest edition, Saw VI. The Saw series has always been very consistent in the opening weekends. Ever since the first sequel, every Saw movie has always debuted over $30 million. The problem is that poll numbers and interest are down from Saw V, so I expect this one to continue the downward trend to bank around $28 million this weekend. 

Another reason why Saw VI will dip below $30 million is the wide expansion of Paranormal Activity this weekend. It expands from 760 theaters to 1,945, which would finally qualify it as a wide-released movie. It has followed The Blair Witch Project's release pattern very closely, and so far, has been nearly as successful. When The Blair Witch Project expanded from 1,101 theaters to 2,142, its per theater average dropped around 57%, and I expect Paranormal Activity's per theater average to drop just a little more to make around $21 million, which would give it another increase!

Our other three new releases won't be as lucky to break double digit millions. The first, Astro Boy, is a computer-animated adaptation of an old cartoon (this I had to look up, I thought the Big Boy restaurants had made a movie). Its trailer has a few laughs for kids, but suffers the paradox of too-mature-for-families and too-kiddy-for-adults syndrome. Basically, its target audience will be young boys, which might give it up to $9 million. Another adaptation (though from a book), Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant suffers from Movie Marketing Rule #1 (don't try to sell more than one genre). Is it a comedy, action movie, or a horror? Its trailer almost seems like a parody of itself, with cheap effects and having vampire "superpowers." Even though I think John C. Reilly looks midly amusing in this, I don't see it making more than $5.5 million.

Our last new release, Amelia, was at one point a good contender for next year's Oscars, but no one seems interested now. It debuts in only 818 theaters, which is fine, but doesn't even look to have a big per theater average. It is an adult drama, which also means trouble, as the genre has been in decline for years. The most determining clue to predicting Amelia is its reviews, in which the adult drama lives or dies. It's only at 21% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is horrendously bad for this kind of film. Amelia might make it to $3.5 million this weekend.

My predictions:
1. Saw VI - $28 million (NEW)
2. Paranormal Activity - $21 million (+7.1%)
3. Where the Wild Things Are - $15.3 million (-53%)
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $10.8 million (-49%)
5. Couples Retreat - $9 million (-48%)
6. Astro Boy - $8.8 million (NEW)
7. Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $5.5 million (NEW)
8. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $5 million (-38%)
9. The Stepfather - $4.4 million (-62%)
10. Zombieland - $3.6 million (-53%)
11. Amelia - $3.5 million (NEW)

Should sadly be some sharp declines for many of our holdovers, such as Where the Wild Things Are, which was a bit frontloaded, and Zombieland, which loses a good chunk of theaters and faces heavy competition. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs should one again have the best hold in the top 10 (not counting Paranormal Activity of course). The Stepfather is nearly a lock to have the worst hold, considering the double punch of Saw VI and the wide expansion of Paranormal Activity.

Movie Marketing Rule #2

 

Both The Stepfather and Law Abiding Citizen both have proven to me even more my second movie marketing rule...

Movie Marketing Rule #2: If your target audience can't relate to your main character or your story, you will not find greater than normal success. 

You can see this effect time and time again in all successful movie marketing. The first Transformers movie wouldn't have been such a smash hit if it just showed armies fighting robots. The trailer first set up the story of a teenager and his first car.

Movies in my book that skipped this rule: Watchmen, which grossed a relatively disappointing $107 million, didn't even have a real main character. Funny People combined Adam Sandler and Seth Rogen, both bankable stars in their own right, yet was one of the lowest grossing comedies of the summer ($51.5 million). Most Sandler movies open with nearly $40 million. Funny People broke Movie Marketing Rule #2, and had a dying comedian as its main character, a person 95% of audience members could not relate to. That's why there's been so few successful movies based off of Hollywood.

There are, of course, exceptions to this rule. Movies that are exempt from this marketing rule have already got their audience to buy in to their movie in a different way. Tropic Thunder did this excellently by combining various comedy stars and giving the audience a very unique comedy experience.

October 16th - 18th Weekend Wrapup

  

Where the Wild Things Are scared away its competitors to claim the #1 spot this weekend. It was an expected win with its strong marketing and its universally theme of childhood. Its future is very uncertain however. It grossed $12 million on Friday, and only increased 2% on Saturday, which is incredibly weak for a family film in fall. This either means that has turned into a more adult film, had a significant fanbase, or could be suffering from some slightly bad word of mouth. I think it's most likely a combination of the three and will most likely finish with $90-100 million.

The big surprise of the weekend was definitely Law Abiding Citizen, which grossing $21 million. The action/thriller genre had been pretty empty for awhile, so Law Abiding Citizen definitely capitalized off of this and the "revenge" success of Taken. Paranormal Activity expanded excellently this weekend to nearly $20 million. Its run continues to be similar to The Blair Witch Project, which had a similar per theater average when it expanded to 1,000 theaters. Paranormal Activity is doing so well that is has a small chance of beating Saw VI next weekend!

Bringing up the top 5, The Stepfather exceeded most expectations and grossed a respectable $12 million. The picture escaped previous horror flops like Pandorum, Jennifer's Body, and Sorority Row by having the most relate-able main character along with a simple plotline. 

Rank Movie - Weekend Gross (Change) My Projected Total

1. Where the Wild Things Are - $32.7 million (NEW) $93 million

2. Law Abiding Citizen - $21 million (NEW) $60 million

3. Paranormal Activity - $19.6 million (+148%) $120 million

4. Couples Retreat - $17.2 million (-50%) $105 million

5. The Stepfather - $11.6 million (NEW) $28 million

6. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $8 million (-30%) $129 million

7. Zombieland - $7.6 million (-49%) $80 million

8. Toy Story 3D - $3 million (-61%) $30.5 million

9. Surrogates - $1.9 million (-55%) $40 million

10. The Invention of Lying - $1.9 million (-43%) $18.5 million 

My accuracy this weekend: 82.64% (ranked # 44) 

Weekend Preview: October 16th - 18th

After last weekend's relatively slow marketplace, we have 3 new films opening tomorrow as well as one film expanding into most theaters. 

Where the Wild Things Are is the favorite to win the weekend. Based on Maurice Sendak's famous children's book, Where the Wild Things Are boasts a fantastic visual feast that brings the simple story of a boy's rebellion to life. I previously noted its great marketing in another blog entry on how it's really going after other demographics besides families. This is probably the smartest idea, as early word says it's a bit scary for children and has had so-so reception from families. Still, it should avoid a fate like The Golden Compass with its trailer's emphasis on imagination. I see at least a $28 million opening. 

Gerard Butler will be trying to recover from his recent disappointment, Gamer ($21 million total), with his new action/thriller flick, Law Abiding Citizen. It also stars Jamie Foxx and looks to be trying to bank off the success of Taken ($145 million total) by highlighting the revenge aspect of the story. The trailer is very well-edited, my only concern is that the last third of the trailer portrays Butler as more of a maniac than a man trying to get justice for his murdered daughter. Either way, it shouldn't break out of the norm for the genre, so I see a $13 million opening.

Last weekend's amazing performer, Paranormal Activity, jumps from 160 theaters to 760 tomorrow. It has had one of the most remarkable performances of the year so far, and it should be even more interesting to see how it does when it goes wide. It has sparked a great deal of interest in the college demographic, most saying it's the scariest movie they've ever seen. It's hard to gauge how high it will go, but right now I'm seeing at least $21 million, which would give it an amazing $27,600 per theater average. This should come as a major disappointment to our third new release this weekend, The Stepfather. It has a trailer very reminiscent of Disturbia, but lacks the charming, likable main character to draw us in. Perhaps if Paranormal Activity didn't exist, it would have a better fate but sadly I don't see it getting much more than $8.7 million. It is however, rated PG-13, which will benefit it demographically, as well as being a good second choice when Paranormal Activity sells out.

Final Predictions:
1. Where the Wild Things Are - $28 million (NEW)
2. Paranormal Activity - $21 million (+166%)
3. Couples Retreat - $16 million (-53%) 
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $13 million (NEW)
5. The Stepfather - $8.7 million (NEW)
6. Zombieland - $8.6 million (-42%)
7. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $6.8 million (-41%)
8. Toy Story 3D - $4.3 million (-45%)
9. Surrogates - $2.1 million (-51%)
10. Whip It - $1.5 million (-47%)

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and Toy Story 3D will both take a hit from Where the Wild Things Are, while Couples Retreat takes a dive from mediocre word of mouth. Zombieland looks to be the only holdover that could potentially have a nice drop, but the double punch from Paranormal Activity and The Stepfather will most likely hurt it, even though Zombieland is more of an action/comedy than a horror film.

Oct 9th - 11th Weekend Wrapup

Couples Retreat blew through most expectations and topped the weekend chart with an estimated $34.3 million. Vince Vaughn has become one of the most consistent comedic draws in recent years from Wedding Crashers ($210 million), Four Christmases ($120 million), The Break-Up ($118 million), and Dodgeball ($114 million). With mediocre word of mouth and even worse reviews, it came to a surprise to most who were expecting Couples Retreat to be around or under $30 million. Couples Retreat should be able to cross $100 million and most likely finish around $110 million since there are few comedies on the horizon.

The big weekend highlight was Paranormal Activity. The new Blair Witch-esque film played at only 160 theaters, versus Couples Retreat's 3,000 for comparison. Paranormal Activity despite in such few locations was able to gross $7.9 million and come in at #4. This is huge, and bodes well for Paranormal Activity's future. The buzz just keeps building, especially considering it only dropped 17% on Sunday, when most others movies dropped over 30%. I definitely think it has a great shot of becoming a huge hit and gross over $100 million, which would make it the first horror film to do so since The Grudge in 2004. The movie will be a huge profit either way, considering its budget was only $15,000.

On the holdovers, Zombieland had an awesome 2nd weekend hold of 40%, which is fantastic for the genre and shows its great word of mouth kicking in. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs continues to have great drops, losing only 27% of last weekend's gross. Where the Wild Things Are will be its first big competition and it will be interesting to see how it affects Cloudy. The Invention of Lying suffered the biggest drop in the top 10 like I guessed, due to big competition from Couples Retreat and its poor word of mouth.

Rank Movie - Weekend Gross (Change) My Projected Total
1. Couples Retreat - $34.3 million (NEW) $110 million
2. Zombieland - $14.8 million (-40%) $85 million
3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $11.5 million (-27%) $120 million
4. Paranormal Activity - $7.9 million (+1,384%) $140 million
5. Toy Story 3D - $7.8 million (-38%) $30 million
6. Surrogates - $4.3 million (-41%) $39 million
7. The Invention of Lying - $3.3 million (-53%) $17 million
8. Whip It - $2.8 million (-40%) $14 million
9. Capitalism: A Love Story - $2.6 million (-41%) $14 million
10. Fame - $2.5 million (-45%) $24.5 million

My accuracy this weekend: 93.30% (ranked #3)

Weekend Preview: Oct 9th - 11th

This weekend, Couples Retreat is the sole new release and looks to debut strongly. Though it has an extensive comedic cast, the real draw here is Vince Vaughn who has been very consistent in the past few years (Wedding Crashers, The Break-Up, Fred Claus, and Four Christmases). The trailer and TV spots are pretty strong and have a great "getaway" feeling to it, which is essentially why anyone goes to the theater. Couples Retreat should get close to $30 million this weekend.

One of the most interesting movies this weekend to watch will be Paranormal Activity. Paramount's done a fantastic job marketing this horror flick in a new, effective method. The movie's been playing only at midnight for the past several weeks in select cities. Its online trailer is quite chilling and gets people excited for a great theater experience. At the end of the trailer, it encourages people to "demand" it for their theater, which over 500,000 people have already done. It should make at least $3 million this weekend in only 159 theaters and continue to grow and grow in the weeks to come.

Final predictions:

1. Couples Retreat - $27 million (NEW)
2. Zombieland - $14 million (-43%)
3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $11.5 million (-27%)
4. Toy Story 3D - $9 million (-28%)
5. Surrogates - $4.1 million (-43%)
6. The Invention of Lying - $3.6 million (-49%)
7. Paranormal Activity - $3.2 million (+500%)
8. Capitalism: A Love Story - $2.7 million (-39%)
9. Whip It - $2.7 million (-42%)
10. Fame - $2.6 million (-44%)
11. The Informant! - $2.2 million (-40%)

With no other new releases besides Couples Retreat, the holdovers should have lighter than normal drops, especially the two family films, Cloudy and Toy Story 3D. Zombieland should have a great 2nd weekend hold with its great word of mouth. The Invention of Lying will most likely fall the highest.

Future Hit - Where the Wild Things Are

After watching the first trailer many months ago, I was blown away by how sophisticated a movie based on a short children's book could look. I was also skeptical on how the mainstream audience would accept it.

The marketing in the past few weeks has been very solid and changed my opinion on its potential success. The trailer, TV spots, and posters have been of top quality and very consistent. It's not only going to attract families, but also the college-aged and older adults. Where the Wild Things Are has been heavily marketed to the college demographic, a segment that's particularly nostalgic of its childhood, through Pandora and spots during popular shows with the demo (The Office).

Where the Wild Things Are comes out October 16th against Law Abiding Citizen and The Stepfather. It should easily win the weekend and have its first three weeks competition free. Astro Boy is destined to bomb, so the only film Where the Wild Things Are has to worry about is A Christmas Carol, which starts November 6th.

Early prediction

Opening Weekend: $30 million
Total: $105 million

On a side note, my little brother actually shares the name of the main character, so the book has always been a big deal in my house. I myself can't wait for the movie!

Future Hit - New Moon

As much as I loathe the franchise, one cannot deny its popularity. The first Twilight movie grossed over $191 million after an incredibly frontloaded opening weekend (it dropped a whopping 40% on its 2nd day). The next installment, New Moon, hits theaters November 20th.

I can't find any reason why the sequel would gross any less as the fanbase has only increased since last year and the production values look to have gone up drastically for a more "blockbuster" feel. The real question is how much it will go up. I've put together a list of the biggest sequel jumps in recent years:

1. Terminator 2 - 433%
2. The Spy Who Shagged Me - 282%
3. Rambo: First Blood Part II - 219%
4. The Road Warrior - 171%
5. Highlander II - 164%
6. Evil Dead 2 - 147%
7. Lethal Weapon 2 - 126%
8. Bad Boys II - 111%
9. Meet the Fockers - 68%
10. Shrek 2 - 65%
11. Rush Hour 2 - 60%
12. Saw II - 58%
13. From Russia with Love - 54%
14. Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls - 50%
15. American Pie 2 - 42%
16. Die Hard 2 - 42%
17. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - 39%
18. X2: X-Men United - 37%
19. The Mummy Returns - 30%
20. Toy Story 2 - 28%
21. The Karate Kid Part II - 27%
22. Hellboy II - 27%
23. Hannibal - 26%
24. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 26%

The most comparable ones are Transformers and Pirates of the Caribbean. I see around a 40% jump over Twilight, which would put New Moon at around $280 million for the Christmas season. Simply massive. We can only hope 2012 will beat it.

Dismantling a Bomb - Whip It

Over the weekend, Drew Barrymore's new flick, Whip It, grossed a paltry $4.65 million. With a bright female cast, positive buzz, and even sneak previews, one has to wonder what happened. Even the similarly female themed 2006 sports comedy Stick It opened to DOUBLE what Whip It did. Like every movie ever released, it all comes down to the premise and how well it was marketed.

Whip It had a good premise for a drama: a normal girl gets involved into the unique world of roller derby. This wouldn't have had a huge audience, but it had potential to be a successful coming-of-age movie. The full trailer in the theater showed a good mix of comedy and drama and sold the premise well. The marketing that killed it in my opinion was the TV spots. TV spots are a great method of confirming or destroying a person's interest in the last week before a movie is released. Whip It's TV spots were quite the mess. (Check out this one) It was hard to tell if it was directly a teen romantic movie or an extreme sports movie.

Movie Marketing Rule #1: Don't try to sell more than one genre.

Now in the end, Whip It won't be that big of a bomb or even a disappointment financially as its budget was $15 million, but it is more of a lost potential sleeper hit.