October 23rd - 25th Weekend Wrapup

This past weekend, Saw was no longer the king of horror during the Halloween time frame. Paranormal Activity was the #1 movie in America with $21.1 million. Paranormal's gross was expected, but it taking the top spot was definitely not. Saw has been a very consistent opener since its first sequel, each of them banking over $30 million in their first weekends. This time, Saw VI opened with only $14.1 million, meaning Saw VI made less in its first three days than the previous three Saw's did on their first day. 

What caused the massive drop off? Audience reception from the last two movies have been pretty subpar, so when presented with a promising alternative (Paranormal Activity), they took it, leaving only the hardcore fans of Saw in the theater. Despite Saw VI already making back its budget (only $11 million) this weekend, its gross was far below even the lowest of predictions. The next Saw will be in 3D, so we will see next year if that saves the franchise from falling even more. 

Our other three new releases did little to improve this weekend. Astro Boy grossed a poor $6.7 million by failing to interest families, as a sci-fi animation based on TV show no kid this generation has ever heard of is a very hard sell. It's not going to even get close to half of its $65 million budget. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant proved even more the importance of a target audience as I predicted. A movie that's based on a current "fad" does not guarantee success, it all comes down to the premise & story, characters, and how well they are marketed. The Vampire's Assistant was too cheesy in its ads to be dark, and tried to sell too many genres that don't mix well (Movie Marketing Rule #1), so this weekend it grossed a paltry $6.3 million. 

Amelia didn't fly very far, grossing $3.9 million in 820 theaters. It had a decent per theater average of $4,761 (Saw VI had a $4,650 average for comparison), but there's little chance it will gain much traction, which will cut its Oscar potential down a lot. These kind of dramas live or die by their reviews, and Amelia didn't cut it.

Where the Wild Things Are had the biggest drop in top 10, falling 57% to $14 million. Reception among families is poor, as apparently the film is a bit boring for kids, but its run should improve a little in the future as its older audience seem to be responding well to it. The Stepfather didn't implode as I thought it would (because of the competition). Sneak-ins in to Paranormal Activity and Saw VI possibly helped it avoid a 50% drop. 

Rank Movie - Weekend Gross (Change) My Projected Total

1. Paranormal Activity - $21.1 million (+7.6%) $120 million
2. Saw VI - $14.1 million (NEW) $27 million

3. Where the Wild Things Are - $14.0 million (-57%) $85 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $12.4 million (-41%) $59 million
5. Couples Retreat - $10.6 million (-38%) $105 million
6. Astro Boy - $6.7 million (NEW) $20 million
7. Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $6.3 million (NEW) $19 million

8. The Stepfather - $6.2 million (-46%) $34 million
9. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $5.3 million (-35%) $129 million

10. Zombieland - $4.2 million (-45%) $80 million
11. Amelia - $3.9 million (NEW) $16 million

My accuracy this weekend: 78.22% (ranked # 31)
Saw definitely killed my score this weekend by nearly doubling its actual gross, along with The Stepfather doing way better than I expected. A decent rank, nonetheless.