Dismantling a Bomb - Saw VI

Last weekend, Saw VI stumbled out of the gate with a poor $14.1 million opening, a worse start than the very first Saw! Let's take a look at the previous Saw performances:

Movie - Opening Weekend (% Change from Previous Movie) / Total (% Change)
Saw - $18.3 million / $55.2 million
Saw II - $31.7 million (+73%) / $87 million (+58%)
Saw III - $33.6 million (+6%) / $80.2 million (-8%)
Saw IV - $31.8 million (-5%) / $63.3 million (-21%)

Saw V - $30.1 million (-5%) / $55.2 million (-13%)

Saw VI - $14.1 million (-53%) / ~$26 million (-53%)

Quite the dropoff from Saw V. I think this fallout was caused by a combination of various marketing reasons. Competition-wise, the Saw series has had the Halloween time frame all to itself (with the exception of the first, which competed against The Grudge). This year, Saw VI had to content with Paranormal Activity, a movie most general moviegoers picked between the two choices because of Paranormal's big buzz of being "the scariest movie ever." There has also been some big dropoffs of audience reception to the past Saw's. Take a look at the Yahoo average user grades:

Saw - B

Saw II - B+

Saw III - B

Saw IV - B

Saw V - B-

Saw VI's marketing was noticeable a lot weaker as well. The posters weren't as clever with the Saw traps, nor was the tagline and marketing message ("Saw comes full circle" vs. Saw V's "You won't believe how it ends"). 

So overall, the combination of competition, previous movies' shrinking reception, and weaker marketing all led to the massive 53% dropoff from Saw V. Of course, Saw VI will still be profitable with its $11 million budget and one would have to expect some sort of dropoff after 6 films in just 6 years. It is still a big disappointment that few truly expected. 

Note: Saw VI's current user grade on Yahoo is at a B+, which could bode well for the series' future, when next year Saw VII debuts in 3D.

This Is It Wednesday Opening & Halloween Weekend Preview

Michael Jackson's This Is It opened Wednesday with a modest gross of $7.5 million. Expectations were set very high for this movie, which studios reportedly battled over with Sony being the highest bidder of $60 million. That said, This Is It's Wednedsay gross is fairly disappointing, especially as it didn't the Hannah Montana concert movie's first day ($8.7 million) and barely went past the Jonas Brothers concert movie's first day ($5 million). While those two movies both opened on Friday and This Is It on a less budy Wednesday, one has to assume Michael Jackson has a much larger fanbase which would have pushed This Is It to a higher level. I believe the media overload of Michael Jackson in the past months probably is the biggest reason for this.

Still, this is a documentary/concert movie and This Is It will probably still end up being the highest grossing movie in that category (though it has to beat the Hannah Montana concert movie first). While some analysts were expecting over $70 million for its first 5 days, I now predict a five-day gross of a little more than $26 million, with a weekend gross of $17 million. This would barely give it the #1 weekend position. It could rebound more with the weekend, but it has Halloween to hurt it and I believe a good amount of its fanbase has already rushed out to see it.

Halloween falling on a Saturday hasn't happened since 1998, so it should be interesting to see how the holdovers play out (most daily box office figures aren't available prior to 2000). The Halloween-themed movies should get a very nice bump on Saturday (Saw VI, Paranormal Activity, The Stepfather, and Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant). However, Saw VI will still overall implode over the weekend, just like all the other Saw's. The family films won't be hurt too horribly on Saturday as most of their attendance is during the day anyway, but they still should lose 20% of their Saturday (due to trick or treating) and recover slightly on Sunday. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs should have the best drop in the top ten besides Paranormal Activity. Adult-targeted films (Couples Retreat, Law Abiding Citizen) tend to also get a boost on Halloween, but their Saturday boost will probably be equalized by a bigger Sunday drop.

My predictions:
1. Michael Jackson's This Is It - $17 million (NEW)
2. Paranormal Activity - $16 million (-24%)
3. Law Abiding Citizen - $7.6 million (-39%)
4. Where the Wild Things Are - $7.5 million (-47%)
5. Couples Retreat - $5 million (-53%)
6. Saw VI - $4.5 million (-68%)
7. Astro Boy - $3.7 million (-45%)
8. The Stepfather - $3.3 million (-47%)
9. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $3.2 million (-39%)
10. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $3 million (-52%)

October 23rd - 25th Weekend Wrapup

This past weekend, Saw was no longer the king of horror during the Halloween time frame. Paranormal Activity was the #1 movie in America with $21.1 million. Paranormal's gross was expected, but it taking the top spot was definitely not. Saw has been a very consistent opener since its first sequel, each of them banking over $30 million in their first weekends. This time, Saw VI opened with only $14.1 million, meaning Saw VI made less in its first three days than the previous three Saw's did on their first day. 

What caused the massive drop off? Audience reception from the last two movies have been pretty subpar, so when presented with a promising alternative (Paranormal Activity), they took it, leaving only the hardcore fans of Saw in the theater. Despite Saw VI already making back its budget (only $11 million) this weekend, its gross was far below even the lowest of predictions. The next Saw will be in 3D, so we will see next year if that saves the franchise from falling even more. 

Our other three new releases did little to improve this weekend. Astro Boy grossed a poor $6.7 million by failing to interest families, as a sci-fi animation based on TV show no kid this generation has ever heard of is a very hard sell. It's not going to even get close to half of its $65 million budget. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant proved even more the importance of a target audience as I predicted. A movie that's based on a current "fad" does not guarantee success, it all comes down to the premise & story, characters, and how well they are marketed. The Vampire's Assistant was too cheesy in its ads to be dark, and tried to sell too many genres that don't mix well (Movie Marketing Rule #1), so this weekend it grossed a paltry $6.3 million. 

Amelia didn't fly very far, grossing $3.9 million in 820 theaters. It had a decent per theater average of $4,761 (Saw VI had a $4,650 average for comparison), but there's little chance it will gain much traction, which will cut its Oscar potential down a lot. These kind of dramas live or die by their reviews, and Amelia didn't cut it.

Where the Wild Things Are had the biggest drop in top 10, falling 57% to $14 million. Reception among families is poor, as apparently the film is a bit boring for kids, but its run should improve a little in the future as its older audience seem to be responding well to it. The Stepfather didn't implode as I thought it would (because of the competition). Sneak-ins in to Paranormal Activity and Saw VI possibly helped it avoid a 50% drop. 

Rank Movie - Weekend Gross (Change) My Projected Total

1. Paranormal Activity - $21.1 million (+7.6%) $120 million
2. Saw VI - $14.1 million (NEW) $27 million

3. Where the Wild Things Are - $14.0 million (-57%) $85 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $12.4 million (-41%) $59 million
5. Couples Retreat - $10.6 million (-38%) $105 million
6. Astro Boy - $6.7 million (NEW) $20 million
7. Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $6.3 million (NEW) $19 million

8. The Stepfather - $6.2 million (-46%) $34 million
9. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $5.3 million (-35%) $129 million

10. Zombieland - $4.2 million (-45%) $80 million
11. Amelia - $3.9 million (NEW) $16 million

My accuracy this weekend: 78.22% (ranked # 31)
Saw definitely killed my score this weekend by nearly doubling its actual gross, along with The Stepfather doing way better than I expected. A decent rank, nonetheless.

Weekend Preview: October 23rd - 25th

This weekend, four new movies enter the marketplace, each with their own problems. The Saw series looks to dominate the box office with its latest edition, Saw VI. The Saw series has always been very consistent in the opening weekends. Ever since the first sequel, every Saw movie has always debuted over $30 million. The problem is that poll numbers and interest are down from Saw V, so I expect this one to continue the downward trend to bank around $28 million this weekend. 

Another reason why Saw VI will dip below $30 million is the wide expansion of Paranormal Activity this weekend. It expands from 760 theaters to 1,945, which would finally qualify it as a wide-released movie. It has followed The Blair Witch Project's release pattern very closely, and so far, has been nearly as successful. When The Blair Witch Project expanded from 1,101 theaters to 2,142, its per theater average dropped around 57%, and I expect Paranormal Activity's per theater average to drop just a little more to make around $21 million, which would give it another increase!

Our other three new releases won't be as lucky to break double digit millions. The first, Astro Boy, is a computer-animated adaptation of an old cartoon (this I had to look up, I thought the Big Boy restaurants had made a movie). Its trailer has a few laughs for kids, but suffers the paradox of too-mature-for-families and too-kiddy-for-adults syndrome. Basically, its target audience will be young boys, which might give it up to $9 million. Another adaptation (though from a book), Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant suffers from Movie Marketing Rule #1 (don't try to sell more than one genre). Is it a comedy, action movie, or a horror? Its trailer almost seems like a parody of itself, with cheap effects and having vampire "superpowers." Even though I think John C. Reilly looks midly amusing in this, I don't see it making more than $5.5 million.

Our last new release, Amelia, was at one point a good contender for next year's Oscars, but no one seems interested now. It debuts in only 818 theaters, which is fine, but doesn't even look to have a big per theater average. It is an adult drama, which also means trouble, as the genre has been in decline for years. The most determining clue to predicting Amelia is its reviews, in which the adult drama lives or dies. It's only at 21% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is horrendously bad for this kind of film. Amelia might make it to $3.5 million this weekend.

My predictions:
1. Saw VI - $28 million (NEW)
2. Paranormal Activity - $21 million (+7.1%)
3. Where the Wild Things Are - $15.3 million (-53%)
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $10.8 million (-49%)
5. Couples Retreat - $9 million (-48%)
6. Astro Boy - $8.8 million (NEW)
7. Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $5.5 million (NEW)
8. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $5 million (-38%)
9. The Stepfather - $4.4 million (-62%)
10. Zombieland - $3.6 million (-53%)
11. Amelia - $3.5 million (NEW)

Should sadly be some sharp declines for many of our holdovers, such as Where the Wild Things Are, which was a bit frontloaded, and Zombieland, which loses a good chunk of theaters and faces heavy competition. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs should one again have the best hold in the top 10 (not counting Paranormal Activity of course). The Stepfather is nearly a lock to have the worst hold, considering the double punch of Saw VI and the wide expansion of Paranormal Activity.

Movie Marketing Rule #2

 

Both The Stepfather and Law Abiding Citizen both have proven to me even more my second movie marketing rule...

Movie Marketing Rule #2: If your target audience can't relate to your main character or your story, you will not find greater than normal success. 

You can see this effect time and time again in all successful movie marketing. The first Transformers movie wouldn't have been such a smash hit if it just showed armies fighting robots. The trailer first set up the story of a teenager and his first car.

Movies in my book that skipped this rule: Watchmen, which grossed a relatively disappointing $107 million, didn't even have a real main character. Funny People combined Adam Sandler and Seth Rogen, both bankable stars in their own right, yet was one of the lowest grossing comedies of the summer ($51.5 million). Most Sandler movies open with nearly $40 million. Funny People broke Movie Marketing Rule #2, and had a dying comedian as its main character, a person 95% of audience members could not relate to. That's why there's been so few successful movies based off of Hollywood.

There are, of course, exceptions to this rule. Movies that are exempt from this marketing rule have already got their audience to buy in to their movie in a different way. Tropic Thunder did this excellently by combining various comedy stars and giving the audience a very unique comedy experience.

October 16th - 18th Weekend Wrapup

  

Where the Wild Things Are scared away its competitors to claim the #1 spot this weekend. It was an expected win with its strong marketing and its universally theme of childhood. Its future is very uncertain however. It grossed $12 million on Friday, and only increased 2% on Saturday, which is incredibly weak for a family film in fall. This either means that has turned into a more adult film, had a significant fanbase, or could be suffering from some slightly bad word of mouth. I think it's most likely a combination of the three and will most likely finish with $90-100 million.

The big surprise of the weekend was definitely Law Abiding Citizen, which grossing $21 million. The action/thriller genre had been pretty empty for awhile, so Law Abiding Citizen definitely capitalized off of this and the "revenge" success of Taken. Paranormal Activity expanded excellently this weekend to nearly $20 million. Its run continues to be similar to The Blair Witch Project, which had a similar per theater average when it expanded to 1,000 theaters. Paranormal Activity is doing so well that is has a small chance of beating Saw VI next weekend!

Bringing up the top 5, The Stepfather exceeded most expectations and grossed a respectable $12 million. The picture escaped previous horror flops like Pandorum, Jennifer's Body, and Sorority Row by having the most relate-able main character along with a simple plotline. 

Rank Movie - Weekend Gross (Change) My Projected Total

1. Where the Wild Things Are - $32.7 million (NEW) $93 million

2. Law Abiding Citizen - $21 million (NEW) $60 million

3. Paranormal Activity - $19.6 million (+148%) $120 million

4. Couples Retreat - $17.2 million (-50%) $105 million

5. The Stepfather - $11.6 million (NEW) $28 million

6. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $8 million (-30%) $129 million

7. Zombieland - $7.6 million (-49%) $80 million

8. Toy Story 3D - $3 million (-61%) $30.5 million

9. Surrogates - $1.9 million (-55%) $40 million

10. The Invention of Lying - $1.9 million (-43%) $18.5 million 

My accuracy this weekend: 82.64% (ranked # 44) 

Weekend Preview: October 16th - 18th

After last weekend's relatively slow marketplace, we have 3 new films opening tomorrow as well as one film expanding into most theaters. 

Where the Wild Things Are is the favorite to win the weekend. Based on Maurice Sendak's famous children's book, Where the Wild Things Are boasts a fantastic visual feast that brings the simple story of a boy's rebellion to life. I previously noted its great marketing in another blog entry on how it's really going after other demographics besides families. This is probably the smartest idea, as early word says it's a bit scary for children and has had so-so reception from families. Still, it should avoid a fate like The Golden Compass with its trailer's emphasis on imagination. I see at least a $28 million opening. 

Gerard Butler will be trying to recover from his recent disappointment, Gamer ($21 million total), with his new action/thriller flick, Law Abiding Citizen. It also stars Jamie Foxx and looks to be trying to bank off the success of Taken ($145 million total) by highlighting the revenge aspect of the story. The trailer is very well-edited, my only concern is that the last third of the trailer portrays Butler as more of a maniac than a man trying to get justice for his murdered daughter. Either way, it shouldn't break out of the norm for the genre, so I see a $13 million opening.

Last weekend's amazing performer, Paranormal Activity, jumps from 160 theaters to 760 tomorrow. It has had one of the most remarkable performances of the year so far, and it should be even more interesting to see how it does when it goes wide. It has sparked a great deal of interest in the college demographic, most saying it's the scariest movie they've ever seen. It's hard to gauge how high it will go, but right now I'm seeing at least $21 million, which would give it an amazing $27,600 per theater average. This should come as a major disappointment to our third new release this weekend, The Stepfather. It has a trailer very reminiscent of Disturbia, but lacks the charming, likable main character to draw us in. Perhaps if Paranormal Activity didn't exist, it would have a better fate but sadly I don't see it getting much more than $8.7 million. It is however, rated PG-13, which will benefit it demographically, as well as being a good second choice when Paranormal Activity sells out.

Final Predictions:
1. Where the Wild Things Are - $28 million (NEW)
2. Paranormal Activity - $21 million (+166%)
3. Couples Retreat - $16 million (-53%) 
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $13 million (NEW)
5. The Stepfather - $8.7 million (NEW)
6. Zombieland - $8.6 million (-42%)
7. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $6.8 million (-41%)
8. Toy Story 3D - $4.3 million (-45%)
9. Surrogates - $2.1 million (-51%)
10. Whip It - $1.5 million (-47%)

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and Toy Story 3D will both take a hit from Where the Wild Things Are, while Couples Retreat takes a dive from mediocre word of mouth. Zombieland looks to be the only holdover that could potentially have a nice drop, but the double punch from Paranormal Activity and The Stepfather will most likely hurt it, even though Zombieland is more of an action/comedy than a horror film.

Oct 9th - 11th Weekend Wrapup

Couples Retreat blew through most expectations and topped the weekend chart with an estimated $34.3 million. Vince Vaughn has become one of the most consistent comedic draws in recent years from Wedding Crashers ($210 million), Four Christmases ($120 million), The Break-Up ($118 million), and Dodgeball ($114 million). With mediocre word of mouth and even worse reviews, it came to a surprise to most who were expecting Couples Retreat to be around or under $30 million. Couples Retreat should be able to cross $100 million and most likely finish around $110 million since there are few comedies on the horizon.

The big weekend highlight was Paranormal Activity. The new Blair Witch-esque film played at only 160 theaters, versus Couples Retreat's 3,000 for comparison. Paranormal Activity despite in such few locations was able to gross $7.9 million and come in at #4. This is huge, and bodes well for Paranormal Activity's future. The buzz just keeps building, especially considering it only dropped 17% on Sunday, when most others movies dropped over 30%. I definitely think it has a great shot of becoming a huge hit and gross over $100 million, which would make it the first horror film to do so since The Grudge in 2004. The movie will be a huge profit either way, considering its budget was only $15,000.

On the holdovers, Zombieland had an awesome 2nd weekend hold of 40%, which is fantastic for the genre and shows its great word of mouth kicking in. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs continues to have great drops, losing only 27% of last weekend's gross. Where the Wild Things Are will be its first big competition and it will be interesting to see how it affects Cloudy. The Invention of Lying suffered the biggest drop in the top 10 like I guessed, due to big competition from Couples Retreat and its poor word of mouth.

Rank Movie - Weekend Gross (Change) My Projected Total
1. Couples Retreat - $34.3 million (NEW) $110 million
2. Zombieland - $14.8 million (-40%) $85 million
3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $11.5 million (-27%) $120 million
4. Paranormal Activity - $7.9 million (+1,384%) $140 million
5. Toy Story 3D - $7.8 million (-38%) $30 million
6. Surrogates - $4.3 million (-41%) $39 million
7. The Invention of Lying - $3.3 million (-53%) $17 million
8. Whip It - $2.8 million (-40%) $14 million
9. Capitalism: A Love Story - $2.6 million (-41%) $14 million
10. Fame - $2.5 million (-45%) $24.5 million

My accuracy this weekend: 93.30% (ranked #3)

Weekend Preview: Oct 9th - 11th

This weekend, Couples Retreat is the sole new release and looks to debut strongly. Though it has an extensive comedic cast, the real draw here is Vince Vaughn who has been very consistent in the past few years (Wedding Crashers, The Break-Up, Fred Claus, and Four Christmases). The trailer and TV spots are pretty strong and have a great "getaway" feeling to it, which is essentially why anyone goes to the theater. Couples Retreat should get close to $30 million this weekend.

One of the most interesting movies this weekend to watch will be Paranormal Activity. Paramount's done a fantastic job marketing this horror flick in a new, effective method. The movie's been playing only at midnight for the past several weeks in select cities. Its online trailer is quite chilling and gets people excited for a great theater experience. At the end of the trailer, it encourages people to "demand" it for their theater, which over 500,000 people have already done. It should make at least $3 million this weekend in only 159 theaters and continue to grow and grow in the weeks to come.

Final predictions:

1. Couples Retreat - $27 million (NEW)
2. Zombieland - $14 million (-43%)
3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $11.5 million (-27%)
4. Toy Story 3D - $9 million (-28%)
5. Surrogates - $4.1 million (-43%)
6. The Invention of Lying - $3.6 million (-49%)
7. Paranormal Activity - $3.2 million (+500%)
8. Capitalism: A Love Story - $2.7 million (-39%)
9. Whip It - $2.7 million (-42%)
10. Fame - $2.6 million (-44%)
11. The Informant! - $2.2 million (-40%)

With no other new releases besides Couples Retreat, the holdovers should have lighter than normal drops, especially the two family films, Cloudy and Toy Story 3D. Zombieland should have a great 2nd weekend hold with its great word of mouth. The Invention of Lying will most likely fall the highest.

Future Hit - Where the Wild Things Are

After watching the first trailer many months ago, I was blown away by how sophisticated a movie based on a short children's book could look. I was also skeptical on how the mainstream audience would accept it.

The marketing in the past few weeks has been very solid and changed my opinion on its potential success. The trailer, TV spots, and posters have been of top quality and very consistent. It's not only going to attract families, but also the college-aged and older adults. Where the Wild Things Are has been heavily marketed to the college demographic, a segment that's particularly nostalgic of its childhood, through Pandora and spots during popular shows with the demo (The Office).

Where the Wild Things Are comes out October 16th against Law Abiding Citizen and The Stepfather. It should easily win the weekend and have its first three weeks competition free. Astro Boy is destined to bomb, so the only film Where the Wild Things Are has to worry about is A Christmas Carol, which starts November 6th.

Early prediction

Opening Weekend: $30 million
Total: $105 million

On a side note, my little brother actually shares the name of the main character, so the book has always been a big deal in my house. I myself can't wait for the movie!

Future Hit - New Moon

As much as I loathe the franchise, one cannot deny its popularity. The first Twilight movie grossed over $191 million after an incredibly frontloaded opening weekend (it dropped a whopping 40% on its 2nd day). The next installment, New Moon, hits theaters November 20th.

I can't find any reason why the sequel would gross any less as the fanbase has only increased since last year and the production values look to have gone up drastically for a more "blockbuster" feel. The real question is how much it will go up. I've put together a list of the biggest sequel jumps in recent years:

1. Terminator 2 - 433%
2. The Spy Who Shagged Me - 282%
3. Rambo: First Blood Part II - 219%
4. The Road Warrior - 171%
5. Highlander II - 164%
6. Evil Dead 2 - 147%
7. Lethal Weapon 2 - 126%
8. Bad Boys II - 111%
9. Meet the Fockers - 68%
10. Shrek 2 - 65%
11. Rush Hour 2 - 60%
12. Saw II - 58%
13. From Russia with Love - 54%
14. Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls - 50%
15. American Pie 2 - 42%
16. Die Hard 2 - 42%
17. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - 39%
18. X2: X-Men United - 37%
19. The Mummy Returns - 30%
20. Toy Story 2 - 28%
21. The Karate Kid Part II - 27%
22. Hellboy II - 27%
23. Hannibal - 26%
24. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 26%

The most comparable ones are Transformers and Pirates of the Caribbean. I see around a 40% jump over Twilight, which would put New Moon at around $280 million for the Christmas season. Simply massive. We can only hope 2012 will beat it.

Dismantling a Bomb - Whip It

Over the weekend, Drew Barrymore's new flick, Whip It, grossed a paltry $4.65 million. With a bright female cast, positive buzz, and even sneak previews, one has to wonder what happened. Even the similarly female themed 2006 sports comedy Stick It opened to DOUBLE what Whip It did. Like every movie ever released, it all comes down to the premise and how well it was marketed.

Whip It had a good premise for a drama: a normal girl gets involved into the unique world of roller derby. This wouldn't have had a huge audience, but it had potential to be a successful coming-of-age movie. The full trailer in the theater showed a good mix of comedy and drama and sold the premise well. The marketing that killed it in my opinion was the TV spots. TV spots are a great method of confirming or destroying a person's interest in the last week before a movie is released. Whip It's TV spots were quite the mess. (Check out this one) It was hard to tell if it was directly a teen romantic movie or an extreme sports movie.

Movie Marketing Rule #1: Don't try to sell more than one genre.

Now in the end, Whip It won't be that big of a bomb or even a disappointment financially as its budget was $15 million, but it is more of a lost potential sleeper hit.