Weekend Preview: October 16th - 18th

After last weekend's relatively slow marketplace, we have 3 new films opening tomorrow as well as one film expanding into most theaters. 

Where the Wild Things Are is the favorite to win the weekend. Based on Maurice Sendak's famous children's book, Where the Wild Things Are boasts a fantastic visual feast that brings the simple story of a boy's rebellion to life. I previously noted its great marketing in another blog entry on how it's really going after other demographics besides families. This is probably the smartest idea, as early word says it's a bit scary for children and has had so-so reception from families. Still, it should avoid a fate like The Golden Compass with its trailer's emphasis on imagination. I see at least a $28 million opening. 

Gerard Butler will be trying to recover from his recent disappointment, Gamer ($21 million total), with his new action/thriller flick, Law Abiding Citizen. It also stars Jamie Foxx and looks to be trying to bank off the success of Taken ($145 million total) by highlighting the revenge aspect of the story. The trailer is very well-edited, my only concern is that the last third of the trailer portrays Butler as more of a maniac than a man trying to get justice for his murdered daughter. Either way, it shouldn't break out of the norm for the genre, so I see a $13 million opening.

Last weekend's amazing performer, Paranormal Activity, jumps from 160 theaters to 760 tomorrow. It has had one of the most remarkable performances of the year so far, and it should be even more interesting to see how it does when it goes wide. It has sparked a great deal of interest in the college demographic, most saying it's the scariest movie they've ever seen. It's hard to gauge how high it will go, but right now I'm seeing at least $21 million, which would give it an amazing $27,600 per theater average. This should come as a major disappointment to our third new release this weekend, The Stepfather. It has a trailer very reminiscent of Disturbia, but lacks the charming, likable main character to draw us in. Perhaps if Paranormal Activity didn't exist, it would have a better fate but sadly I don't see it getting much more than $8.7 million. It is however, rated PG-13, which will benefit it demographically, as well as being a good second choice when Paranormal Activity sells out.

Final Predictions:
1. Where the Wild Things Are - $28 million (NEW)
2. Paranormal Activity - $21 million (+166%)
3. Couples Retreat - $16 million (-53%) 
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $13 million (NEW)
5. The Stepfather - $8.7 million (NEW)
6. Zombieland - $8.6 million (-42%)
7. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $6.8 million (-41%)
8. Toy Story 3D - $4.3 million (-45%)
9. Surrogates - $2.1 million (-51%)
10. Whip It - $1.5 million (-47%)

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and Toy Story 3D will both take a hit from Where the Wild Things Are, while Couples Retreat takes a dive from mediocre word of mouth. Zombieland looks to be the only holdover that could potentially have a nice drop, but the double punch from Paranormal Activity and The Stepfather will most likely hurt it, even though Zombieland is more of an action/comedy than a horror film.