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This weekend, two promising new movies look to make a dent in the box office and take the #1 rank away from last weekend's Shutter Island.
Up first with the strongest potential is Kevin Smith's Cop Out starring Tracy Morgan and Bruce Willis. It's the first straight comedy we've had since November's Old Dogs (which bombed). I feel the marketplace is starved for a comedy, considering the last one that's actually done well is Couples Retreat. Now Cop Out doesn't have the most original premise , but its trailer gets big laughs everytime and I feel it's posed to do better than normal. The R-rating should stop it from getting a opening over $30 million, so for now I see it debuting around $25 million.
Our other new release is the horror slasher, The Crazies. With strong reviews and a creepy marketing campaign, it should perform rather well. Its BOM polls are about 75% as strong as The Stranger, which opened to $21 million. I'm seeing The Crazies opening to around $16-17 million on to around a $45 million finish. I could definitely see it going higher.
The holdovers will have standard drops, with the exception of The Wolfman, which once again will suffer direct competition. Tooth Fairy will have another exceptional drop as it captures the last big family audience it will have before next weekend's Alice in Wonderland. Shutter Island should have a decent drop, considering it wasn't very front-loaded last weekend with its 16% Saturday increase.
My predictions:
1. Cop Out - $25.5 million (NEW)
2. Shutter Island - $19.5 million (-53%)
3. The Crazies - $16.5 million (NEW)
4. Avatar - $11.8 million (-27%)
5. Percy Jackson & the Olympians - $8.8 million (-42%)
6. Valentine's Day - $7.9 million (-53%)
7. The Wolfman - $4.5 million (-55%)
8. Dear John - $4 million (-44%)
9. Tooth Fairy - $3.3 million (-24%)
10. Crazy Heart - $2 million (-33%)
After a record-breaking President's Day weekend, Shutter Island is the sole release. Shutter Island is an interesting one to watch, as we get so few high-profile horror blockbusters starring big actors (What Lies Beneath, Signs). Leonardo DiCaprio and director Martin Scorsese won't fail with its excellent creepy marketing, which I see leading Shutter Island to an opening over $35 million to a total over $120 million.
Sadly, our big holdovers will get destroyed after an inflated previous weekend. Valentine's Day will most likely drop in the high 60%'s after an incredible Sunday gross last weekend, while The Wolfman will break the 70% drop with an inflated Sunday and direct competition with Shutter Island.
Even Avatar looks to have its biggest drop of its run yet (though still micro-small compared to other blockbusters)! Avatar is still going to be grossing over $15 million for its 10th weekend, just insane! $750 million is happening.
My Predictions:
1. Shutter Island - $38 million (NEW)
2. Valentine's Day - $17.8 million (-68%)
3. Avatar - $15.9 million (-33%)
4. Percy Jackson & the Olympians - $14.2 million (-55%)
5. The Wolfman - $9.2 million (-71%)
6. Dear John - $7.5 million (-53%)
7. Tooth Fairy - $4.6 million (-24%)
8. Crazy Heart - $2.9 million (-32%)
9. From Paris With Love - $2.2 million (-60%)
10. Edge of Darkness - $2 million (-59%)
1. Avatar - $24.2 million (-23%)
2. Dear John - $22 million (NEW)
3. From Paris With Love - $8.5 million (NEW)
4. Tooth Fairy - $7 million (-30%)
5. Edge of Darkness - $7 million (-59%)
6. When in Rome - $5.8 million (-53%)
7. Crazy Heart - $5.8 million (+151%)
8. The Book of Eli - $5 million (-43%)
9. Legion - $3.4 million (-54%)
10. The Lovely Bones - $2.3 million (-51%)
Finally back from a leave of absence! :)
Dear John looks to dominate this Superbowl weekend, starting off with at least an $11 million Friday, but around a 25% Saturday drop due to a rabid book fanbase. Online polls show Dear John behind similar pictures such as The Time Traveler's Wife and The Lake House, but early sales show a different picture. Either way, this could easily be the movie to take down Avatar in its 8th weekend.
Avatar's 8th weekend! Just beyond incredible that Avatar has made it this far as the #1 movie and as of last Tuesday, become the #1 movie in the United States, passing Titanic's $600 million gross. Avatar doesn't look to be slowing down either, with my best guess showing it pass $725 million.
Trying to imitate Taken's success last year on the Superbowl weekend, From Paris With Love opens tomorrow. I myself, can't see it doing that well, with it failing to really sell its premise in its ads as well as it showing weak online poll response. The best I can see it doing is around $11 million, but I think the more likely scenario is around $8.5 million, which would a bit embarrassing for John Travolta. It would be his third disappointment in a row following The Taking of Pelham 123 and Old Dogs.
On the holdovers, I can see Crazy Heart getting a big bump after its Oscar nominations to almost $6 million. The Lovely Bones and When in Rome are going to take a big hit from Dear John.
