February 26th - 28th Weekend Predictions

This weekend, two promising new movies look to make a dent in the box office and take the #1 rank away from last weekend's Shutter Island.

Up first with the strongest potential is Kevin Smith's Cop Out starring Tracy Morgan and Bruce Willis. It's the first straight comedy we've had since November's Old Dogs (which bombed). I feel the marketplace is starved for a comedy, considering the last one that's actually done well is Couples Retreat. Now Cop Out doesn't have the most original premise , but its trailer gets big laughs everytime and I feel it's posed to do better than normal. The R-rating should stop it from getting a opening over $30 million, so for now I see it debuting around $25 million.

Our other new release is the horror slasher, The Crazies. With strong reviews and a creepy marketing campaign, it should perform rather well. Its BOM polls are about 75% as strong as The Stranger, which opened to $21 million. I'm seeing The Crazies opening to around $16-17 million on to around a $45 million finish. I could definitely see it going higher.

The holdovers will have standard drops, with the exception of The Wolfman, which once again will suffer direct competition. Tooth Fairy will have another exceptional drop as it captures the last big family audience it will have before next weekend's Alice in Wonderland. Shutter Island should have a decent drop, considering it wasn't very front-loaded last weekend with its 16% Saturday increase.

My predictions:
1. Cop Out - $25.5 million (NEW)
2. Shutter Island - $19.5 million (-53%)
3. The Crazies - $16.5 million (NEW)
4. Avatar - $11.8 million (-27%)
5. Percy Jackson & the Olympians - $8.8 million (-42%)
6. Valentine's Day - $7.9 million (-53%)
7. The Wolfman - $4.5 million (-55%)
8. Dear John - $4 million (-44%)
9. Tooth Fairy - $3.3 million (-24%)
10. Crazy Heart - $2 million (-33%)