Thursday, February 4, 2010

February 5th - 7th Weekend Predictions


1. Avatar - $24.2 million (-23%)
2. Dear John - $22 million (NEW)
3. From Paris With Love - $8.5 million (NEW)
4. Tooth Fairy - $7 million (-30%)
5. Edge of Darkness - $7 million (-59%)
6. When in Rome - $5.8 million (-53%)
7. Crazy Heart - $5.8 million (+151%)
8. The Book of Eli - $5 million (-43%)
9. Legion - $3.4 million (-54%)
10. The Lovely Bones - $2.3 million (-51%)

Finally back from a leave of absence! :)

Dear John looks to dominate this Superbowl weekend, starting off with at least an $11 million Friday, but around a 25% Saturday drop due to a rabid book fanbase. Online polls show Dear John behind similar pictures such as The Time Traveler's Wife and The Lake House, but early sales show a different picture. Either way, this could easily be the movie to take down Avatar in its 8th weekend.

Avatar's 8th weekend! Just beyond incredible that Avatar has made it this far as the #1 movie and as of last Tuesday, become the #1 movie in the United States, passing Titanic's $600 million gross. Avatar doesn't look to be slowing down either, with my best guess showing it pass $725 million.

Trying to imitate Taken's success last year on the Superbowl weekend, From Paris With Love opens tomorrow. I myself, can't see it doing that well, with it failing to really sell its premise in its ads as well as it showing weak online poll response. The best I can see it doing is around $11 million, but I think the more likely scenario is around $8.5 million, which would a bit embarrassing for John Travolta. It would be his third disappointment in a row following The Taking of Pelham 123 and Old Dogs.

On the holdovers, I can see Crazy Heart getting a big bump after its Oscar nominations to almost $6 million. The Lovely Bones and When in Rome are going to take a big hit from Dear John

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