Weekend Preview: October 23rd - 25th

This weekend, four new movies enter the marketplace, each with their own problems. The Saw series looks to dominate the box office with its latest edition, Saw VI. The Saw series has always been very consistent in the opening weekends. Ever since the first sequel, every Saw movie has always debuted over $30 million. The problem is that poll numbers and interest are down from Saw V, so I expect this one to continue the downward trend to bank around $28 million this weekend. 

Another reason why Saw VI will dip below $30 million is the wide expansion of Paranormal Activity this weekend. It expands from 760 theaters to 1,945, which would finally qualify it as a wide-released movie. It has followed The Blair Witch Project's release pattern very closely, and so far, has been nearly as successful. When The Blair Witch Project expanded from 1,101 theaters to 2,142, its per theater average dropped around 57%, and I expect Paranormal Activity's per theater average to drop just a little more to make around $21 million, which would give it another increase!

Our other three new releases won't be as lucky to break double digit millions. The first, Astro Boy, is a computer-animated adaptation of an old cartoon (this I had to look up, I thought the Big Boy restaurants had made a movie). Its trailer has a few laughs for kids, but suffers the paradox of too-mature-for-families and too-kiddy-for-adults syndrome. Basically, its target audience will be young boys, which might give it up to $9 million. Another adaptation (though from a book), Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant suffers from Movie Marketing Rule #1 (don't try to sell more than one genre). Is it a comedy, action movie, or a horror? Its trailer almost seems like a parody of itself, with cheap effects and having vampire "superpowers." Even though I think John C. Reilly looks midly amusing in this, I don't see it making more than $5.5 million.

Our last new release, Amelia, was at one point a good contender for next year's Oscars, but no one seems interested now. It debuts in only 818 theaters, which is fine, but doesn't even look to have a big per theater average. It is an adult drama, which also means trouble, as the genre has been in decline for years. The most determining clue to predicting Amelia is its reviews, in which the adult drama lives or dies. It's only at 21% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is horrendously bad for this kind of film. Amelia might make it to $3.5 million this weekend.

My predictions:
1. Saw VI - $28 million (NEW)
2. Paranormal Activity - $21 million (+7.1%)
3. Where the Wild Things Are - $15.3 million (-53%)
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $10.8 million (-49%)
5. Couples Retreat - $9 million (-48%)
6. Astro Boy - $8.8 million (NEW)
7. Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $5.5 million (NEW)
8. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $5 million (-38%)
9. The Stepfather - $4.4 million (-62%)
10. Zombieland - $3.6 million (-53%)
11. Amelia - $3.5 million (NEW)

Should sadly be some sharp declines for many of our holdovers, such as Where the Wild Things Are, which was a bit frontloaded, and Zombieland, which loses a good chunk of theaters and faces heavy competition. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs should one again have the best hold in the top 10 (not counting Paranormal Activity of course). The Stepfather is nearly a lock to have the worst hold, considering the double punch of Saw VI and the wide expansion of Paranormal Activity.