Thanksgiving Predictions

Haven't had a chance to update in awhile, so I'll try to summarize the past two weeks. 2012 did rock solid business in its opening on November 13th with a $65.2 million opening weekend. Now I did overestimate its potential, it should still have a great total of around $160-180 million.

The BIGGEST story by far was the opening of Twilight: New Moon last weekend. It shot past The Dark Knight's opening day with a massive $72.7 million first day, and got the third best opening weekend of all time with $142.8 million, DOUBLING Twilight's first weekend of last year. At this point, I don't see any less than $315 million for New Moon, which would most likely make it the biggest movie of the winter season.


The Blind Side also did amazing business last weekend, with the biggest opening ever for a sports drama! Sandra Bullock proved she is one of the most appealing actresses working this year, with this and The Proposal, even making the much-delayed All About Steve avoid total bomb status. The Blind Side could potentially gross over $150 million over the holiday seasons, easily becoming one of the biggest surprises this year.

With Thanksgiving tomorrow, the box office looks to be very bright. My final weekend predictions:


Rank Movie - Prediction -(Percent Change from last wknd) - 5-Day Gross

1. Twilight: New Moon - $45 million (-68.5%) $67.8 million
2. The Blind Side - $29.5 million (-13.5%) $42.4 million
3. Old Dogs - $22 million (NEW) $32.1 million
4. 2012 - $18 million (-31.8%) $26.1 million
5. A Christmas Carol - $14 million (+14.1%) $20 million
6. Ninja Assassin - $11.3 million (NEW) $19.1 million
7. Planet 51 - $9.6 million (-21.9%) $13.2 million
8. The Fantastic Mr. Fox - $9.1 million (+4371.5%) $12.4 million
9. Precious - $7.2 million (-33.8%) $9.4 million
10. The Men Who Stare At Goats - $1 million (-64.7%) $1.5 million 

Even with two new releases, Twilight: New Moon looks to stay #1 over the Thanksgiving holiday, even though it will fall nearly 70%.  

Old Dogs is marketing as the new Wild Hogs, but I can't see it having the same success. Wild Hogs had a much more appealing trailer and cast (arguably). All of the trailers and TV spots are fast and frenetic, with jokes mostly relating to a very friendly gorilla and some depth perception drug, all which take focus off what the movie is really even about. Still, this type of comedy will have an audience, which should give it over a $30 million 5-Day gross. 

The Blind Side in my opinion will be the story of the weekend. Not only was it huge last weekend, it's barely going to fall at all.