Thanksgiving Predictions

Haven't had a chance to update in awhile, so I'll try to summarize the past two weeks. 2012 did rock solid business in its opening on November 13th with a $65.2 million opening weekend. Now I did overestimate its potential, it should still have a great total of around $160-180 million.

The BIGGEST story by far was the opening of Twilight: New Moon last weekend. It shot past The Dark Knight's opening day with a massive $72.7 million first day, and got the third best opening weekend of all time with $142.8 million, DOUBLING Twilight's first weekend of last year. At this point, I don't see any less than $315 million for New Moon, which would most likely make it the biggest movie of the winter season.


The Blind Side also did amazing business last weekend, with the biggest opening ever for a sports drama! Sandra Bullock proved she is one of the most appealing actresses working this year, with this and The Proposal, even making the much-delayed All About Steve avoid total bomb status. The Blind Side could potentially gross over $150 million over the holiday seasons, easily becoming one of the biggest surprises this year.

With Thanksgiving tomorrow, the box office looks to be very bright. My final weekend predictions:


Rank Movie - Prediction -(Percent Change from last wknd) - 5-Day Gross

1. Twilight: New Moon - $45 million (-68.5%) $67.8 million
2. The Blind Side - $29.5 million (-13.5%) $42.4 million
3. Old Dogs - $22 million (NEW) $32.1 million
4. 2012 - $18 million (-31.8%) $26.1 million
5. A Christmas Carol - $14 million (+14.1%) $20 million
6. Ninja Assassin - $11.3 million (NEW) $19.1 million
7. Planet 51 - $9.6 million (-21.9%) $13.2 million
8. The Fantastic Mr. Fox - $9.1 million (+4371.5%) $12.4 million
9. Precious - $7.2 million (-33.8%) $9.4 million
10. The Men Who Stare At Goats - $1 million (-64.7%) $1.5 million 

Even with two new releases, Twilight: New Moon looks to stay #1 over the Thanksgiving holiday, even though it will fall nearly 70%.  

Old Dogs is marketing as the new Wild Hogs, but I can't see it having the same success. Wild Hogs had a much more appealing trailer and cast (arguably). All of the trailers and TV spots are fast and frenetic, with jokes mostly relating to a very friendly gorilla and some depth perception drug, all which take focus off what the movie is really even about. Still, this type of comedy will have an audience, which should give it over a $30 million 5-Day gross. 

The Blind Side in my opinion will be the story of the weekend. Not only was it huge last weekend, it's barely going to fall at all. 

November 13th - 15th Weekend Predictions

Final Predictions:

1. 2012 - $ 77.0 million (NEW)
2. A Christmas Carol - $ 19.8 million (-34.1%)
3. Michael Jackson's This Is It - $ 7.0 million (-46.8%)
4. The Men Who Stare at Goats - $ 6.1 million (-52.0%)
5. The Fourth Kind - $ 6.0 million (-50.9%)
6. Paranormal Activity - $ 4.6 million (-44.4%)
7. Precious- $ 4.3 million (+129.7%)
8. Couples Retreat - $ 3.8 million (-38.0%)
9. Law Abiding Citizen - $ 3.4 million (-43.4%)
10. The Box - $ 3.4 million (-55.1%)
11. Pirate Radio - $ 1.8 million (NEW)

2012 is headed for some big numbers this weekend. We actually are going to have a very big next three weekends, starting with 2012, New Moon next weekend, and then Thanksgiving weekend following. 2012's marketing campaign has been vast and has definitely made the movie look like the most epic of all disaster movies and an eerie possibility for the future. I don't see any less than a $70 million opening weekend.

Not as confident on the holdovers. Veteran's Day has thrown off some of the regular daily patterns which makes weekend predictions a little simpler. Still, The Box should have one of the biggest dropoffs.

Pirate Radio is bound to sink in my opinion. No buzz or interest. The similarly-themed Taking Woodstock had at least some Oscar-potential at the time and far less competion. I don't see Pirate Radio making much more than $2 million this weekend.

Last weekend's HUGE surprise, Precious, expands into 126 theaters this weekend and will make a minimum of $4 million. It had one of the highest per theater averages ever last weekend in only 16 theaters, nearly breaking into the top ten!

Best and Worst Poster Marketing of Upcoming Movies

Movie posters are an essential piece to every single movie ever released. When done right, a movie poster can provide a great indication of quality to a consumer and get them interested in a movie. On the other side, a bad movie poster doesn't create any attention and the entire point of the poster is lost. Here's what I view as the best posters for movies yet to be released, and just for fun, the worst!

THE BEST

2012 - A truly fantastic yet frightening image of an entire city going underwater. Paints the story perfectly of what could happen if the Mayans were right.

Alice in Wonderland - It won't be released until next spring, but Disney is already doing a great job of showing off their new, colorful zaniness of their live-action Tim Burton-directed Alice in Wonderland with a great poster of Johnny Depp as the Mad Hatter.

New Moon - A great teaser that very simply shows the story focus of the Twilight sequel.

THE WORST

When in Rome - This is about the scariest picture I've ever seen of Kristen Bell. No one would have any idea what this movie is about (or even care) other than a girl wishing to be so giant that she could eat a small taxi-car thing full of six men.

Extraordinary Measures - Words can't explain this awful, boring poster. That line down the back of Brendan Fraser over Harrison Ford's jacket breaks every design rule. Plus to top it off - is it a horror film (the dark red horror movie title font) or an inspirational drama (the tagline of "Don't hope for a miracle. Make One.")??

Avatar - Yes, this is only a teaser poster, but with less than two months away til the actual release date, this is all we have of the large $200+ million budgeted James Cameron film. Just a slightly creepy blue face. At least the trailer is good.

Weekend Preview: November 6th - 8th

November starts off with a bang this weekend, with four new releases looking to stir up some winter business. Jim Carrey's big new animated adventure, A Christmas Carol, debuts tomorrow. Carrey is no stranger to big holiday films, from How the Grinch Stole Christmas ($260 million) to Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events ($118 million). A Christmas Carol is the third motion-caputure style of animation from Zemeckis, following The Polar Express ($180 million) and Beowulf ($82 million). A Christmas Carol should easily catch the #1 postion this weekend. Its had its advertisements everywhere, my only concern is how appealing they are to children. The colors are very dark and it's not Santa-related like The Polar Express. More importantly, the trailers aren't terribly funny. Still, Jim Carrey will still find a large audience which will give A Christmas Carol around a $30 million gross this weekend and a long run ahead throughout Christmas.

Our other 3 releases are fighting to top This Is It's second weekend. The Men Who Stare At Goats has the best chance in my opinion. It has a very funny trailer with a very unique premise. The posters stand out, especially the obvious title. It doesn't have as good of polls as Burn After Reading, but it still should pull around a $16 million opening. 

The Box and The Fourth Kind are looking for horror fans craving more after Halloween. The Fourth Kind has a particularly disturbingly real trailer, a la Paranormal Activity. That will also hurt it as much as it helps it, considering Paranormal Activity has now stolen its thunder and audience. It should pull around an $11 million opening this weekend. The Box headlines Cameron Diaz as its star and centers around a mysterious box that when pressed, gives a couple $1 million, but will also kill someone. If only the trailers focused just on this! Instead, the trailers abandon the "box" halfway through and jump to other random plot points, all the while forgetting to establish Cameron Diaz and James Marsden as real characters. This will make The Box the lowest grossing new release of the four with around $8 million.

My predictions:
1. A Christmas Carol - $29.2 million (NEW)
2. The Men Who Stare At Goals - $16 million (NEW)
3. Michael Jackson's This Is It - $13.5 million (-42%)
4. The Fourth Kind - $11 million (NEW)
5. The Box - $7.8 million (NEW)
6. Paranormal Activity - $7.8 million (-52%)
7. Law Abiding Citizen - $4.5 million (-39%)
8. Couples Retreat - $3.9 million (-40%)
9. Where the Wild Things Are - $2.7 million (-55%)
10. Saw VI - $1.9 million (-62%)


On the holdovers, This Is It should hold relatively well since the initial demand was burned off last week by opening on a Wednesday instead of a Friday. It is also showing very good word of mouth. Paranormal Activity will suffer from good Halloween dailies last weekend as well as two new horror entries. Where the Wild Things Are really can't catch a break, as it will most likely fall over 55% for the third weekend in a row.


Last weekend's accuracy: 87.23% (Ranked # 66 of 465) - Definitely not as high ranked as I wanted to be. I way underestimated Halloween's effect on the family films and used the wrong number for Couples Retreat.

Dismantling a Bomb - Saw VI

Last weekend, Saw VI stumbled out of the gate with a poor $14.1 million opening, a worse start than the very first Saw! Let's take a look at the previous Saw performances:

Movie - Opening Weekend (% Change from Previous Movie) / Total (% Change)
Saw - $18.3 million / $55.2 million
Saw II - $31.7 million (+73%) / $87 million (+58%)
Saw III - $33.6 million (+6%) / $80.2 million (-8%)
Saw IV - $31.8 million (-5%) / $63.3 million (-21%)

Saw V - $30.1 million (-5%) / $55.2 million (-13%)

Saw VI - $14.1 million (-53%) / ~$26 million (-53%)

Quite the dropoff from Saw V. I think this fallout was caused by a combination of various marketing reasons. Competition-wise, the Saw series has had the Halloween time frame all to itself (with the exception of the first, which competed against The Grudge). This year, Saw VI had to content with Paranormal Activity, a movie most general moviegoers picked between the two choices because of Paranormal's big buzz of being "the scariest movie ever." There has also been some big dropoffs of audience reception to the past Saw's. Take a look at the Yahoo average user grades:

Saw - B

Saw II - B+

Saw III - B

Saw IV - B

Saw V - B-

Saw VI's marketing was noticeable a lot weaker as well. The posters weren't as clever with the Saw traps, nor was the tagline and marketing message ("Saw comes full circle" vs. Saw V's "You won't believe how it ends"). 

So overall, the combination of competition, previous movies' shrinking reception, and weaker marketing all led to the massive 53% dropoff from Saw V. Of course, Saw VI will still be profitable with its $11 million budget and one would have to expect some sort of dropoff after 6 films in just 6 years. It is still a big disappointment that few truly expected. 

Note: Saw VI's current user grade on Yahoo is at a B+, which could bode well for the series' future, when next year Saw VII debuts in 3D.

This Is It Wednesday Opening & Halloween Weekend Preview

Michael Jackson's This Is It opened Wednesday with a modest gross of $7.5 million. Expectations were set very high for this movie, which studios reportedly battled over with Sony being the highest bidder of $60 million. That said, This Is It's Wednedsay gross is fairly disappointing, especially as it didn't the Hannah Montana concert movie's first day ($8.7 million) and barely went past the Jonas Brothers concert movie's first day ($5 million). While those two movies both opened on Friday and This Is It on a less budy Wednesday, one has to assume Michael Jackson has a much larger fanbase which would have pushed This Is It to a higher level. I believe the media overload of Michael Jackson in the past months probably is the biggest reason for this.

Still, this is a documentary/concert movie and This Is It will probably still end up being the highest grossing movie in that category (though it has to beat the Hannah Montana concert movie first). While some analysts were expecting over $70 million for its first 5 days, I now predict a five-day gross of a little more than $26 million, with a weekend gross of $17 million. This would barely give it the #1 weekend position. It could rebound more with the weekend, but it has Halloween to hurt it and I believe a good amount of its fanbase has already rushed out to see it.

Halloween falling on a Saturday hasn't happened since 1998, so it should be interesting to see how the holdovers play out (most daily box office figures aren't available prior to 2000). The Halloween-themed movies should get a very nice bump on Saturday (Saw VI, Paranormal Activity, The Stepfather, and Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant). However, Saw VI will still overall implode over the weekend, just like all the other Saw's. The family films won't be hurt too horribly on Saturday as most of their attendance is during the day anyway, but they still should lose 20% of their Saturday (due to trick or treating) and recover slightly on Sunday. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs should have the best drop in the top ten besides Paranormal Activity. Adult-targeted films (Couples Retreat, Law Abiding Citizen) tend to also get a boost on Halloween, but their Saturday boost will probably be equalized by a bigger Sunday drop.

My predictions:
1. Michael Jackson's This Is It - $17 million (NEW)
2. Paranormal Activity - $16 million (-24%)
3. Law Abiding Citizen - $7.6 million (-39%)
4. Where the Wild Things Are - $7.5 million (-47%)
5. Couples Retreat - $5 million (-53%)
6. Saw VI - $4.5 million (-68%)
7. Astro Boy - $3.7 million (-45%)
8. The Stepfather - $3.3 million (-47%)
9. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $3.2 million (-39%)
10. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $3 million (-52%)

October 23rd - 25th Weekend Wrapup

This past weekend, Saw was no longer the king of horror during the Halloween time frame. Paranormal Activity was the #1 movie in America with $21.1 million. Paranormal's gross was expected, but it taking the top spot was definitely not. Saw has been a very consistent opener since its first sequel, each of them banking over $30 million in their first weekends. This time, Saw VI opened with only $14.1 million, meaning Saw VI made less in its first three days than the previous three Saw's did on their first day. 

What caused the massive drop off? Audience reception from the last two movies have been pretty subpar, so when presented with a promising alternative (Paranormal Activity), they took it, leaving only the hardcore fans of Saw in the theater. Despite Saw VI already making back its budget (only $11 million) this weekend, its gross was far below even the lowest of predictions. The next Saw will be in 3D, so we will see next year if that saves the franchise from falling even more. 

Our other three new releases did little to improve this weekend. Astro Boy grossed a poor $6.7 million by failing to interest families, as a sci-fi animation based on TV show no kid this generation has ever heard of is a very hard sell. It's not going to even get close to half of its $65 million budget. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant proved even more the importance of a target audience as I predicted. A movie that's based on a current "fad" does not guarantee success, it all comes down to the premise & story, characters, and how well they are marketed. The Vampire's Assistant was too cheesy in its ads to be dark, and tried to sell too many genres that don't mix well (Movie Marketing Rule #1), so this weekend it grossed a paltry $6.3 million. 

Amelia didn't fly very far, grossing $3.9 million in 820 theaters. It had a decent per theater average of $4,761 (Saw VI had a $4,650 average for comparison), but there's little chance it will gain much traction, which will cut its Oscar potential down a lot. These kind of dramas live or die by their reviews, and Amelia didn't cut it.

Where the Wild Things Are had the biggest drop in top 10, falling 57% to $14 million. Reception among families is poor, as apparently the film is a bit boring for kids, but its run should improve a little in the future as its older audience seem to be responding well to it. The Stepfather didn't implode as I thought it would (because of the competition). Sneak-ins in to Paranormal Activity and Saw VI possibly helped it avoid a 50% drop. 

Rank Movie - Weekend Gross (Change) My Projected Total

1. Paranormal Activity - $21.1 million (+7.6%) $120 million
2. Saw VI - $14.1 million (NEW) $27 million

3. Where the Wild Things Are - $14.0 million (-57%) $85 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $12.4 million (-41%) $59 million
5. Couples Retreat - $10.6 million (-38%) $105 million
6. Astro Boy - $6.7 million (NEW) $20 million
7. Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $6.3 million (NEW) $19 million

8. The Stepfather - $6.2 million (-46%) $34 million
9. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $5.3 million (-35%) $129 million

10. Zombieland - $4.2 million (-45%) $80 million
11. Amelia - $3.9 million (NEW) $16 million

My accuracy this weekend: 78.22% (ranked # 31)
Saw definitely killed my score this weekend by nearly doubling its actual gross, along with The Stepfather doing way better than I expected. A decent rank, nonetheless.