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After watching the first trailer many months ago, I was blown away by how sophisticated a movie based on a short children's book could look. I was also skeptical on how the mainstream audience would accept it.
The marketing in the past few weeks has been very solid and changed my opinion on its potential success. The trailer, TV spots, and posters have been of top quality and very consistent. It's not only going to attract families, but also the college-aged and older adults. Where the Wild Things Are has been heavily marketed to the college demographic, a segment that's particularly nostalgic of its childhood, through Pandora and spots during popular shows with the demo (The Office).
Where the Wild Things Are comes out October 16th against Law Abiding Citizen and The Stepfather. It should easily win the weekend and have its first three weeks competition free. Astro Boy is destined to bomb, so the only film Where the Wild Things Are has to worry about is A Christmas Carol, which starts November 6th.
Early prediction
Opening Weekend: $30 million
Total: $105 million
On a side note, my little brother actually shares the name of the main character, so the book has always been a big deal in my house. I myself can't wait for the movie!
As much as I loathe the franchise, one cannot deny its popularity. The first Twilight movie grossed over $191 million after an incredibly frontloaded opening weekend (it dropped a whopping 40% on its 2nd day). The next installment, New Moon, hits theaters November 20th.
I can't find any reason why the sequel would gross any less as the fanbase has only increased since last year and the production values look to have gone up drastically for a more "blockbuster" feel. The real question is how much it will go up. I've put together a list of the biggest sequel jumps in recent years:1. Terminator 2 - 433%
2. The Spy Who Shagged Me - 282%
3. Rambo: First Blood Part II - 219%
4. The Road Warrior - 171%
5. Highlander II - 164%
6. Evil Dead 2 - 147%
7. Lethal Weapon 2 - 126%
8. Bad Boys II - 111%
9. Meet the Fockers - 68%
10. Shrek 2 - 65%
11. Rush Hour 2 - 60%
12. Saw II - 58%
13. From Russia with Love - 54%
14. Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls - 50%
15. American Pie 2 - 42%
16. Die Hard 2 - 42%
17. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - 39%
18. X2: X-Men United - 37%
19. The Mummy Returns - 30%
20. Toy Story 2 - 28%
21. The Karate Kid Part II - 27%
22. Hellboy II - 27%
23. Hannibal - 26%
24. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 26%
The most comparable ones are Transformers and Pirates of the Caribbean. I see around a 40% jump over Twilight, which would put New Moon at around $280 million for the Christmas season. Simply massive. We can only hope 2012 will beat it.
