Dismantling a Bomb - Saw VI

Last weekend, Saw VI stumbled out of the gate with a poor $14.1 million opening, a worse start than the very first Saw! Let's take a look at the previous Saw performances:

Movie - Opening Weekend (% Change from Previous Movie) / Total (% Change)
Saw - $18.3 million / $55.2 million
Saw II - $31.7 million (+73%) / $87 million (+58%)
Saw III - $33.6 million (+6%) / $80.2 million (-8%)
Saw IV - $31.8 million (-5%) / $63.3 million (-21%)

Saw V - $30.1 million (-5%) / $55.2 million (-13%)

Saw VI - $14.1 million (-53%) / ~$26 million (-53%)

Quite the dropoff from Saw V. I think this fallout was caused by a combination of various marketing reasons. Competition-wise, the Saw series has had the Halloween time frame all to itself (with the exception of the first, which competed against The Grudge). This year, Saw VI had to content with Paranormal Activity, a movie most general moviegoers picked between the two choices because of Paranormal's big buzz of being "the scariest movie ever." There has also been some big dropoffs of audience reception to the past Saw's. Take a look at the Yahoo average user grades:

Saw - B

Saw II - B+

Saw III - B

Saw IV - B

Saw V - B-

Saw VI's marketing was noticeable a lot weaker as well. The posters weren't as clever with the Saw traps, nor was the tagline and marketing message ("Saw comes full circle" vs. Saw V's "You won't believe how it ends"). 

So overall, the combination of competition, previous movies' shrinking reception, and weaker marketing all led to the massive 53% dropoff from Saw V. Of course, Saw VI will still be profitable with its $11 million budget and one would have to expect some sort of dropoff after 6 films in just 6 years. It is still a big disappointment that few truly expected. 

Note: Saw VI's current user grade on Yahoo is at a B+, which could bode well for the series' future, when next year Saw VII debuts in 3D.

Dismantling a Bomb - Whip It

Over the weekend, Drew Barrymore's new flick, Whip It, grossed a paltry $4.65 million. With a bright female cast, positive buzz, and even sneak previews, one has to wonder what happened. Even the similarly female themed 2006 sports comedy Stick It opened to DOUBLE what Whip It did. Like every movie ever released, it all comes down to the premise and how well it was marketed.

Whip It had a good premise for a drama: a normal girl gets involved into the unique world of roller derby. This wouldn't have had a huge audience, but it had potential to be a successful coming-of-age movie. The full trailer in the theater showed a good mix of comedy and drama and sold the premise well. The marketing that killed it in my opinion was the TV spots. TV spots are a great method of confirming or destroying a person's interest in the last week before a movie is released. Whip It's TV spots were quite the mess. (Check out this one) It was hard to tell if it was directly a teen romantic movie or an extreme sports movie.

Movie Marketing Rule #1: Don't try to sell more than one genre.

Now in the end, Whip It won't be that big of a bomb or even a disappointment financially as its budget was $15 million, but it is more of a lost potential sleeper hit.