Weekend Preview: November 6th - 8th

November starts off with a bang this weekend, with four new releases looking to stir up some winter business. Jim Carrey's big new animated adventure, A Christmas Carol, debuts tomorrow. Carrey is no stranger to big holiday films, from How the Grinch Stole Christmas ($260 million) to Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events ($118 million). A Christmas Carol is the third motion-caputure style of animation from Zemeckis, following The Polar Express ($180 million) and Beowulf ($82 million). A Christmas Carol should easily catch the #1 postion this weekend. Its had its advertisements everywhere, my only concern is how appealing they are to children. The colors are very dark and it's not Santa-related like The Polar Express. More importantly, the trailers aren't terribly funny. Still, Jim Carrey will still find a large audience which will give A Christmas Carol around a $30 million gross this weekend and a long run ahead throughout Christmas.

Our other 3 releases are fighting to top This Is It's second weekend. The Men Who Stare At Goats has the best chance in my opinion. It has a very funny trailer with a very unique premise. The posters stand out, especially the obvious title. It doesn't have as good of polls as Burn After Reading, but it still should pull around a $16 million opening. 

The Box and The Fourth Kind are looking for horror fans craving more after Halloween. The Fourth Kind has a particularly disturbingly real trailer, a la Paranormal Activity. That will also hurt it as much as it helps it, considering Paranormal Activity has now stolen its thunder and audience. It should pull around an $11 million opening this weekend. The Box headlines Cameron Diaz as its star and centers around a mysterious box that when pressed, gives a couple $1 million, but will also kill someone. If only the trailers focused just on this! Instead, the trailers abandon the "box" halfway through and jump to other random plot points, all the while forgetting to establish Cameron Diaz and James Marsden as real characters. This will make The Box the lowest grossing new release of the four with around $8 million.

My predictions:
1. A Christmas Carol - $29.2 million (NEW)
2. The Men Who Stare At Goals - $16 million (NEW)
3. Michael Jackson's This Is It - $13.5 million (-42%)
4. The Fourth Kind - $11 million (NEW)
5. The Box - $7.8 million (NEW)
6. Paranormal Activity - $7.8 million (-52%)
7. Law Abiding Citizen - $4.5 million (-39%)
8. Couples Retreat - $3.9 million (-40%)
9. Where the Wild Things Are - $2.7 million (-55%)
10. Saw VI - $1.9 million (-62%)


On the holdovers, This Is It should hold relatively well since the initial demand was burned off last week by opening on a Wednesday instead of a Friday. It is also showing very good word of mouth. Paranormal Activity will suffer from good Halloween dailies last weekend as well as two new horror entries. Where the Wild Things Are really can't catch a break, as it will most likely fall over 55% for the third weekend in a row.


Last weekend's accuracy: 87.23% (Ranked # 66 of 465) - Definitely not as high ranked as I wanted to be. I way underestimated Halloween's effect on the family films and used the wrong number for Couples Retreat.

Dismantling a Bomb - Saw VI

Last weekend, Saw VI stumbled out of the gate with a poor $14.1 million opening, a worse start than the very first Saw! Let's take a look at the previous Saw performances:

Movie - Opening Weekend (% Change from Previous Movie) / Total (% Change)
Saw - $18.3 million / $55.2 million
Saw II - $31.7 million (+73%) / $87 million (+58%)
Saw III - $33.6 million (+6%) / $80.2 million (-8%)
Saw IV - $31.8 million (-5%) / $63.3 million (-21%)

Saw V - $30.1 million (-5%) / $55.2 million (-13%)

Saw VI - $14.1 million (-53%) / ~$26 million (-53%)

Quite the dropoff from Saw V. I think this fallout was caused by a combination of various marketing reasons. Competition-wise, the Saw series has had the Halloween time frame all to itself (with the exception of the first, which competed against The Grudge). This year, Saw VI had to content with Paranormal Activity, a movie most general moviegoers picked between the two choices because of Paranormal's big buzz of being "the scariest movie ever." There has also been some big dropoffs of audience reception to the past Saw's. Take a look at the Yahoo average user grades:

Saw - B

Saw II - B+

Saw III - B

Saw IV - B

Saw V - B-

Saw VI's marketing was noticeable a lot weaker as well. The posters weren't as clever with the Saw traps, nor was the tagline and marketing message ("Saw comes full circle" vs. Saw V's "You won't believe how it ends"). 

So overall, the combination of competition, previous movies' shrinking reception, and weaker marketing all led to the massive 53% dropoff from Saw V. Of course, Saw VI will still be profitable with its $11 million budget and one would have to expect some sort of dropoff after 6 films in just 6 years. It is still a big disappointment that few truly expected. 

Note: Saw VI's current user grade on Yahoo is at a B+, which could bode well for the series' future, when next year Saw VII debuts in 3D.

This Is It Wednesday Opening & Halloween Weekend Preview

Michael Jackson's This Is It opened Wednesday with a modest gross of $7.5 million. Expectations were set very high for this movie, which studios reportedly battled over with Sony being the highest bidder of $60 million. That said, This Is It's Wednedsay gross is fairly disappointing, especially as it didn't the Hannah Montana concert movie's first day ($8.7 million) and barely went past the Jonas Brothers concert movie's first day ($5 million). While those two movies both opened on Friday and This Is It on a less budy Wednesday, one has to assume Michael Jackson has a much larger fanbase which would have pushed This Is It to a higher level. I believe the media overload of Michael Jackson in the past months probably is the biggest reason for this.

Still, this is a documentary/concert movie and This Is It will probably still end up being the highest grossing movie in that category (though it has to beat the Hannah Montana concert movie first). While some analysts were expecting over $70 million for its first 5 days, I now predict a five-day gross of a little more than $26 million, with a weekend gross of $17 million. This would barely give it the #1 weekend position. It could rebound more with the weekend, but it has Halloween to hurt it and I believe a good amount of its fanbase has already rushed out to see it.

Halloween falling on a Saturday hasn't happened since 1998, so it should be interesting to see how the holdovers play out (most daily box office figures aren't available prior to 2000). The Halloween-themed movies should get a very nice bump on Saturday (Saw VI, Paranormal Activity, The Stepfather, and Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant). However, Saw VI will still overall implode over the weekend, just like all the other Saw's. The family films won't be hurt too horribly on Saturday as most of their attendance is during the day anyway, but they still should lose 20% of their Saturday (due to trick or treating) and recover slightly on Sunday. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs should have the best drop in the top ten besides Paranormal Activity. Adult-targeted films (Couples Retreat, Law Abiding Citizen) tend to also get a boost on Halloween, but their Saturday boost will probably be equalized by a bigger Sunday drop.

My predictions:
1. Michael Jackson's This Is It - $17 million (NEW)
2. Paranormal Activity - $16 million (-24%)
3. Law Abiding Citizen - $7.6 million (-39%)
4. Where the Wild Things Are - $7.5 million (-47%)
5. Couples Retreat - $5 million (-53%)
6. Saw VI - $4.5 million (-68%)
7. Astro Boy - $3.7 million (-45%)
8. The Stepfather - $3.3 million (-47%)
9. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $3.2 million (-39%)
10. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $3 million (-52%)

October 23rd - 25th Weekend Wrapup

This past weekend, Saw was no longer the king of horror during the Halloween time frame. Paranormal Activity was the #1 movie in America with $21.1 million. Paranormal's gross was expected, but it taking the top spot was definitely not. Saw has been a very consistent opener since its first sequel, each of them banking over $30 million in their first weekends. This time, Saw VI opened with only $14.1 million, meaning Saw VI made less in its first three days than the previous three Saw's did on their first day. 

What caused the massive drop off? Audience reception from the last two movies have been pretty subpar, so when presented with a promising alternative (Paranormal Activity), they took it, leaving only the hardcore fans of Saw in the theater. Despite Saw VI already making back its budget (only $11 million) this weekend, its gross was far below even the lowest of predictions. The next Saw will be in 3D, so we will see next year if that saves the franchise from falling even more. 

Our other three new releases did little to improve this weekend. Astro Boy grossed a poor $6.7 million by failing to interest families, as a sci-fi animation based on TV show no kid this generation has ever heard of is a very hard sell. It's not going to even get close to half of its $65 million budget. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant proved even more the importance of a target audience as I predicted. A movie that's based on a current "fad" does not guarantee success, it all comes down to the premise & story, characters, and how well they are marketed. The Vampire's Assistant was too cheesy in its ads to be dark, and tried to sell too many genres that don't mix well (Movie Marketing Rule #1), so this weekend it grossed a paltry $6.3 million. 

Amelia didn't fly very far, grossing $3.9 million in 820 theaters. It had a decent per theater average of $4,761 (Saw VI had a $4,650 average for comparison), but there's little chance it will gain much traction, which will cut its Oscar potential down a lot. These kind of dramas live or die by their reviews, and Amelia didn't cut it.

Where the Wild Things Are had the biggest drop in top 10, falling 57% to $14 million. Reception among families is poor, as apparently the film is a bit boring for kids, but its run should improve a little in the future as its older audience seem to be responding well to it. The Stepfather didn't implode as I thought it would (because of the competition). Sneak-ins in to Paranormal Activity and Saw VI possibly helped it avoid a 50% drop. 

Rank Movie - Weekend Gross (Change) My Projected Total

1. Paranormal Activity - $21.1 million (+7.6%) $120 million
2. Saw VI - $14.1 million (NEW) $27 million

3. Where the Wild Things Are - $14.0 million (-57%) $85 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $12.4 million (-41%) $59 million
5. Couples Retreat - $10.6 million (-38%) $105 million
6. Astro Boy - $6.7 million (NEW) $20 million
7. Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $6.3 million (NEW) $19 million

8. The Stepfather - $6.2 million (-46%) $34 million
9. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $5.3 million (-35%) $129 million

10. Zombieland - $4.2 million (-45%) $80 million
11. Amelia - $3.9 million (NEW) $16 million

My accuracy this weekend: 78.22% (ranked # 31)
Saw definitely killed my score this weekend by nearly doubling its actual gross, along with The Stepfather doing way better than I expected. A decent rank, nonetheless.

Weekend Preview: October 23rd - 25th

This weekend, four new movies enter the marketplace, each with their own problems. The Saw series looks to dominate the box office with its latest edition, Saw VI. The Saw series has always been very consistent in the opening weekends. Ever since the first sequel, every Saw movie has always debuted over $30 million. The problem is that poll numbers and interest are down from Saw V, so I expect this one to continue the downward trend to bank around $28 million this weekend. 

Another reason why Saw VI will dip below $30 million is the wide expansion of Paranormal Activity this weekend. It expands from 760 theaters to 1,945, which would finally qualify it as a wide-released movie. It has followed The Blair Witch Project's release pattern very closely, and so far, has been nearly as successful. When The Blair Witch Project expanded from 1,101 theaters to 2,142, its per theater average dropped around 57%, and I expect Paranormal Activity's per theater average to drop just a little more to make around $21 million, which would give it another increase!

Our other three new releases won't be as lucky to break double digit millions. The first, Astro Boy, is a computer-animated adaptation of an old cartoon (this I had to look up, I thought the Big Boy restaurants had made a movie). Its trailer has a few laughs for kids, but suffers the paradox of too-mature-for-families and too-kiddy-for-adults syndrome. Basically, its target audience will be young boys, which might give it up to $9 million. Another adaptation (though from a book), Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant suffers from Movie Marketing Rule #1 (don't try to sell more than one genre). Is it a comedy, action movie, or a horror? Its trailer almost seems like a parody of itself, with cheap effects and having vampire "superpowers." Even though I think John C. Reilly looks midly amusing in this, I don't see it making more than $5.5 million.

Our last new release, Amelia, was at one point a good contender for next year's Oscars, but no one seems interested now. It debuts in only 818 theaters, which is fine, but doesn't even look to have a big per theater average. It is an adult drama, which also means trouble, as the genre has been in decline for years. The most determining clue to predicting Amelia is its reviews, in which the adult drama lives or dies. It's only at 21% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is horrendously bad for this kind of film. Amelia might make it to $3.5 million this weekend.

My predictions:
1. Saw VI - $28 million (NEW)
2. Paranormal Activity - $21 million (+7.1%)
3. Where the Wild Things Are - $15.3 million (-53%)
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $10.8 million (-49%)
5. Couples Retreat - $9 million (-48%)
6. Astro Boy - $8.8 million (NEW)
7. Cirque de Freak: The Vampire's Assistant - $5.5 million (NEW)
8. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $5 million (-38%)
9. The Stepfather - $4.4 million (-62%)
10. Zombieland - $3.6 million (-53%)
11. Amelia - $3.5 million (NEW)

Should sadly be some sharp declines for many of our holdovers, such as Where the Wild Things Are, which was a bit frontloaded, and Zombieland, which loses a good chunk of theaters and faces heavy competition. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs should one again have the best hold in the top 10 (not counting Paranormal Activity of course). The Stepfather is nearly a lock to have the worst hold, considering the double punch of Saw VI and the wide expansion of Paranormal Activity.

Movie Marketing Rule #2

 

Both The Stepfather and Law Abiding Citizen both have proven to me even more my second movie marketing rule...

Movie Marketing Rule #2: If your target audience can't relate to your main character or your story, you will not find greater than normal success. 

You can see this effect time and time again in all successful movie marketing. The first Transformers movie wouldn't have been such a smash hit if it just showed armies fighting robots. The trailer first set up the story of a teenager and his first car.

Movies in my book that skipped this rule: Watchmen, which grossed a relatively disappointing $107 million, didn't even have a real main character. Funny People combined Adam Sandler and Seth Rogen, both bankable stars in their own right, yet was one of the lowest grossing comedies of the summer ($51.5 million). Most Sandler movies open with nearly $40 million. Funny People broke Movie Marketing Rule #2, and had a dying comedian as its main character, a person 95% of audience members could not relate to. That's why there's been so few successful movies based off of Hollywood.

There are, of course, exceptions to this rule. Movies that are exempt from this marketing rule have already got their audience to buy in to their movie in a different way. Tropic Thunder did this excellently by combining various comedy stars and giving the audience a very unique comedy experience.

October 16th - 18th Weekend Wrapup

  

Where the Wild Things Are scared away its competitors to claim the #1 spot this weekend. It was an expected win with its strong marketing and its universally theme of childhood. Its future is very uncertain however. It grossed $12 million on Friday, and only increased 2% on Saturday, which is incredibly weak for a family film in fall. This either means that has turned into a more adult film, had a significant fanbase, or could be suffering from some slightly bad word of mouth. I think it's most likely a combination of the three and will most likely finish with $90-100 million.

The big surprise of the weekend was definitely Law Abiding Citizen, which grossing $21 million. The action/thriller genre had been pretty empty for awhile, so Law Abiding Citizen definitely capitalized off of this and the "revenge" success of Taken. Paranormal Activity expanded excellently this weekend to nearly $20 million. Its run continues to be similar to The Blair Witch Project, which had a similar per theater average when it expanded to 1,000 theaters. Paranormal Activity is doing so well that is has a small chance of beating Saw VI next weekend!

Bringing up the top 5, The Stepfather exceeded most expectations and grossed a respectable $12 million. The picture escaped previous horror flops like Pandorum, Jennifer's Body, and Sorority Row by having the most relate-able main character along with a simple plotline. 

Rank Movie - Weekend Gross (Change) My Projected Total

1. Where the Wild Things Are - $32.7 million (NEW) $93 million

2. Law Abiding Citizen - $21 million (NEW) $60 million

3. Paranormal Activity - $19.6 million (+148%) $120 million

4. Couples Retreat - $17.2 million (-50%) $105 million

5. The Stepfather - $11.6 million (NEW) $28 million

6. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $8 million (-30%) $129 million

7. Zombieland - $7.6 million (-49%) $80 million

8. Toy Story 3D - $3 million (-61%) $30.5 million

9. Surrogates - $1.9 million (-55%) $40 million

10. The Invention of Lying - $1.9 million (-43%) $18.5 million 

My accuracy this weekend: 82.64% (ranked # 44)