February 26th - 28th Weekend Predictions

This weekend, two promising new movies look to make a dent in the box office and take the #1 rank away from last weekend's Shutter Island.

Up first with the strongest potential is Kevin Smith's Cop Out starring Tracy Morgan and Bruce Willis. It's the first straight comedy we've had since November's Old Dogs (which bombed). I feel the marketplace is starved for a comedy, considering the last one that's actually done well is Couples Retreat. Now Cop Out doesn't have the most original premise , but its trailer gets big laughs everytime and I feel it's posed to do better than normal. The R-rating should stop it from getting a opening over $30 million, so for now I see it debuting around $25 million.

Our other new release is the horror slasher, The Crazies. With strong reviews and a creepy marketing campaign, it should perform rather well. Its BOM polls are about 75% as strong as The Stranger, which opened to $21 million. I'm seeing The Crazies opening to around $16-17 million on to around a $45 million finish. I could definitely see it going higher.

The holdovers will have standard drops, with the exception of The Wolfman, which once again will suffer direct competition. Tooth Fairy will have another exceptional drop as it captures the last big family audience it will have before next weekend's Alice in Wonderland. Shutter Island should have a decent drop, considering it wasn't very front-loaded last weekend with its 16% Saturday increase.

My predictions:
1. Cop Out - $25.5 million (NEW)
2. Shutter Island - $19.5 million (-53%)
3. The Crazies - $16.5 million (NEW)
4. Avatar - $11.8 million (-27%)
5. Percy Jackson & the Olympians - $8.8 million (-42%)
6. Valentine's Day - $7.9 million (-53%)
7. The Wolfman - $4.5 million (-55%)
8. Dear John - $4 million (-44%)
9. Tooth Fairy - $3.3 million (-24%)
10. Crazy Heart - $2 million (-33%)

February 19th - 21st Weekend Predictions

After a record-breaking President's Day weekend, Shutter Island is the sole release. Shutter Island is an interesting one to watch, as we get so few high-profile horror blockbusters starring big actors (What Lies Beneath, Signs). Leonardo DiCaprio and director Martin Scorsese won't fail with its excellent creepy marketing, which I see leading Shutter Island to an opening over $35 million to a total over $120 million.

Sadly, our big holdovers will get destroyed after an inflated previous weekend. Valentine's Day will most likely drop in the high 60%'s after an incredible Sunday gross last weekend, while The Wolfman will break the 70% drop with an inflated Sunday and direct competition with Shutter Island.

Even Avatar looks to have its biggest drop of its run yet (though still micro-small compared to other blockbusters)! Avatar is still going to be grossing over $15 million for its 10th weekend, just insane! $750 million is happening.

My Predictions:
1. Shutter Island - $38 million (NEW)
2. Valentine's Day - $17.8 million (-68%)
3. Avatar - $15.9 million (-33%)
4. Percy Jackson & the Olympians - $14.2 million (-55%)
5. The Wolfman - $9.2 million (-71%)
6. Dear John - $7.5 million (-53%)
7. Tooth Fairy - $4.6 million (-24%)
8. Crazy Heart - $2.9 million (-32%)
9. From Paris With Love - $2.2 million (-60%)
10. Edge of Darkness - $2 million (-59%)

February 5th - 7th Weekend Predictions

1. Avatar - $24.2 million (-23%)
2. Dear John - $22 million (NEW)
3. From Paris With Love - $8.5 million (NEW)
4. Tooth Fairy - $7 million (-30%)
5. Edge of Darkness - $7 million (-59%)
6. When in Rome - $5.8 million (-53%)
7. Crazy Heart - $5.8 million (+151%)
8. The Book of Eli - $5 million (-43%)
9. Legion - $3.4 million (-54%)
10. The Lovely Bones - $2.3 million (-51%)

Finally back from a leave of absence! :)

Dear John looks to dominate this Superbowl weekend, starting off with at least an $11 million Friday, but around a 25% Saturday drop due to a rabid book fanbase. Online polls show Dear John behind similar pictures such as The Time Traveler's Wife and The Lake House, but early sales show a different picture. Either way, this could easily be the movie to take down Avatar in its 8th weekend.

Avatar's 8th weekend! Just beyond incredible that Avatar has made it this far as the #1 movie and as of last Tuesday, become the #1 movie in the United States, passing Titanic's $600 million gross. Avatar doesn't look to be slowing down either, with my best guess showing it pass $725 million.

Trying to imitate Taken's success last year on the Superbowl weekend, From Paris With Love opens tomorrow. I myself, can't see it doing that well, with it failing to really sell its premise in its ads as well as it showing weak online poll response. The best I can see it doing is around $11 million, but I think the more likely scenario is around $8.5 million, which would a bit embarrassing for John Travolta. It would be his third disappointment in a row following The Taking of Pelham 123 and Old Dogs.

On the holdovers, I can see Crazy Heart getting a big bump after its Oscar nominations to almost $6 million. The Lovely Bones and When in Rome are going to take a big hit from Dear John. 

December 18th - 20th Weekend Predictions

Final Predictions:

1. Avatar - $47 million (NEW)
2. The Princess and the Frog - $15 million (-38%)
3. The Blind Side - $10.9 million (-28%)
4. Did You Hear About the Morgans? - $6.8 million
5. A Christmas Carol - $6 million (-12%)
6. Invictus - $5.2 million (-40%)
7. New Moon - $4.6 million (-42%)
8. Brothers - $3 million (-40%)
9. Old Dogs - $2.8 million (-37%)
10. 2012 - $2.7 million (-38%)

Avatar is a very interesting new release that I still haven't penned down myself. It is James Cameron's (Titanic) latest $500 million epic staring Sam Worthington (Terminator: Salvation). Avatar has some massive expectations going for it, but I sadly don't think it's going to reach them. It's still got a lot to fight against. First, it has no previous fanbase since it's an original work. Some will argue that there is a James Cameron fanbase, but I doubt that group holds more than 500,000 members and more just fans of high quality films that would see this film anyway. My second factor is its perception. Set at least hundred years in the future, the movie's mainly about 10-feet tall blue aliens with tails that our main character falls in love with, which isn't too relateable. There are a lot of other detractors in my book, another small one being that sci-fi movies don't have a huge history of success during the winter (The Day the Earth Stood Still, Starship Troopers, Treasure Planet). 

Don't get me wrong, I fully expect Avatar to be an amazing movie (and I really would like to see it do well so we can have more film "risks"), but I can't jump on the bandwagon this time. Hopefully I'm proven wrong!


On another note, Did You Hear About the Morgans will also debut on Friday. Its TV spots continually forget to show the actual premise of the entire movie (which is a married couple is forced to go into the witness protection program) and are entirely selling it on the banter of Hugh Grant and Sarah Jessica Parker. Only problem is they're not doing it that well. I'd be surprised to see it open over $10 million, which is sad, because based off the trailer that was released a couple months ago, I thought it could do great business.

Thanksgiving Predictions

Haven't had a chance to update in awhile, so I'll try to summarize the past two weeks. 2012 did rock solid business in its opening on November 13th with a $65.2 million opening weekend. Now I did overestimate its potential, it should still have a great total of around $160-180 million.

The BIGGEST story by far was the opening of Twilight: New Moon last weekend. It shot past The Dark Knight's opening day with a massive $72.7 million first day, and got the third best opening weekend of all time with $142.8 million, DOUBLING Twilight's first weekend of last year. At this point, I don't see any less than $315 million for New Moon, which would most likely make it the biggest movie of the winter season.


The Blind Side also did amazing business last weekend, with the biggest opening ever for a sports drama! Sandra Bullock proved she is one of the most appealing actresses working this year, with this and The Proposal, even making the much-delayed All About Steve avoid total bomb status. The Blind Side could potentially gross over $150 million over the holiday seasons, easily becoming one of the biggest surprises this year.

With Thanksgiving tomorrow, the box office looks to be very bright. My final weekend predictions:


Rank Movie - Prediction -(Percent Change from last wknd) - 5-Day Gross

1. Twilight: New Moon - $45 million (-68.5%) $67.8 million
2. The Blind Side - $29.5 million (-13.5%) $42.4 million
3. Old Dogs - $22 million (NEW) $32.1 million
4. 2012 - $18 million (-31.8%) $26.1 million
5. A Christmas Carol - $14 million (+14.1%) $20 million
6. Ninja Assassin - $11.3 million (NEW) $19.1 million
7. Planet 51 - $9.6 million (-21.9%) $13.2 million
8. The Fantastic Mr. Fox - $9.1 million (+4371.5%) $12.4 million
9. Precious - $7.2 million (-33.8%) $9.4 million
10. The Men Who Stare At Goats - $1 million (-64.7%) $1.5 million 

Even with two new releases, Twilight: New Moon looks to stay #1 over the Thanksgiving holiday, even though it will fall nearly 70%.  

Old Dogs is marketing as the new Wild Hogs, but I can't see it having the same success. Wild Hogs had a much more appealing trailer and cast (arguably). All of the trailers and TV spots are fast and frenetic, with jokes mostly relating to a very friendly gorilla and some depth perception drug, all which take focus off what the movie is really even about. Still, this type of comedy will have an audience, which should give it over a $30 million 5-Day gross. 

The Blind Side in my opinion will be the story of the weekend. Not only was it huge last weekend, it's barely going to fall at all. 

November 13th - 15th Weekend Predictions

Final Predictions:

1. 2012 - $ 77.0 million (NEW)
2. A Christmas Carol - $ 19.8 million (-34.1%)
3. Michael Jackson's This Is It - $ 7.0 million (-46.8%)
4. The Men Who Stare at Goats - $ 6.1 million (-52.0%)
5. The Fourth Kind - $ 6.0 million (-50.9%)
6. Paranormal Activity - $ 4.6 million (-44.4%)
7. Precious- $ 4.3 million (+129.7%)
8. Couples Retreat - $ 3.8 million (-38.0%)
9. Law Abiding Citizen - $ 3.4 million (-43.4%)
10. The Box - $ 3.4 million (-55.1%)
11. Pirate Radio - $ 1.8 million (NEW)

2012 is headed for some big numbers this weekend. We actually are going to have a very big next three weekends, starting with 2012, New Moon next weekend, and then Thanksgiving weekend following. 2012's marketing campaign has been vast and has definitely made the movie look like the most epic of all disaster movies and an eerie possibility for the future. I don't see any less than a $70 million opening weekend.

Not as confident on the holdovers. Veteran's Day has thrown off some of the regular daily patterns which makes weekend predictions a little simpler. Still, The Box should have one of the biggest dropoffs.

Pirate Radio is bound to sink in my opinion. No buzz or interest. The similarly-themed Taking Woodstock had at least some Oscar-potential at the time and far less competion. I don't see Pirate Radio making much more than $2 million this weekend.

Last weekend's HUGE surprise, Precious, expands into 126 theaters this weekend and will make a minimum of $4 million. It had one of the highest per theater averages ever last weekend in only 16 theaters, nearly breaking into the top ten!

Best and Worst Poster Marketing of Upcoming Movies

Movie posters are an essential piece to every single movie ever released. When done right, a movie poster can provide a great indication of quality to a consumer and get them interested in a movie. On the other side, a bad movie poster doesn't create any attention and the entire point of the poster is lost. Here's what I view as the best posters for movies yet to be released, and just for fun, the worst!

THE BEST

2012 - A truly fantastic yet frightening image of an entire city going underwater. Paints the story perfectly of what could happen if the Mayans were right.

Alice in Wonderland - It won't be released until next spring, but Disney is already doing a great job of showing off their new, colorful zaniness of their live-action Tim Burton-directed Alice in Wonderland with a great poster of Johnny Depp as the Mad Hatter.

New Moon - A great teaser that very simply shows the story focus of the Twilight sequel.

THE WORST

When in Rome - This is about the scariest picture I've ever seen of Kristen Bell. No one would have any idea what this movie is about (or even care) other than a girl wishing to be so giant that she could eat a small taxi-car thing full of six men.

Extraordinary Measures - Words can't explain this awful, boring poster. That line down the back of Brendan Fraser over Harrison Ford's jacket breaks every design rule. Plus to top it off - is it a horror film (the dark red horror movie title font) or an inspirational drama (the tagline of "Don't hope for a miracle. Make One.")??

Avatar - Yes, this is only a teaser poster, but with less than two months away til the actual release date, this is all we have of the large $200+ million budgeted James Cameron film. Just a slightly creepy blue face. At least the trailer is good.